Saturday – Monday:
We have some strong inversions happening most mornings. That is bringing low clouds and valley fog with clear skies on the upper mountain. Temperatures are in the single digits at the base and 30s up top Saturday morning. The fog should burn off by afternoon.
Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected each day through Monday. Highs in the 30s on the mountain. Lighter winds are expected for Saturday. Then breezy from the west Sunday and Monday, gusting up to 30+ mph up top.
Tuesday – Wednesday System:
The forecast models are still split as to whether the next storm will bring more than just a shower or two to the Tahoe region. They should be in better agreement only 3 days out but they are not. Some show several inches of snow for the mountain from early Tuesday into Wednesday before clearing out by Wednesday night.
Others show only a shower or two with less than an inch possible. The automated forecasts are taking an average of the models and suggesting 2-5 inches of snow on the mountain by Wednesday morning. But the confidence in that is still low with the split among the models.
We should expect mostly cloudy skies and gusty winds with the chance of at least a few snow showers. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 50+ mph up top from the west. Then lowering to 30+ mph Wednesday. Highs in the 30s both days. Snow levels could hover near the base through Tuesday night. Then rising into Wednesday.
We should have a better idea of snowfall over the next few days as we get closer.
The long-range models continue to show high-pressure building in stronger over CA Thursday through the end of December. That would bring some milder temperatures. The storm track could become quite active to our north into the Pacific NW.
The storms may stay to our north through the period keeping us dry or fairly dry. There is a chance that a storm or two could dig just far enough south to bring some rain & snow to the northern Sierra. We’ll keep an eye on the trends and will let you know when we see the next chance for snow.