Wednesday – Thursday Snow Showers:
The small storm started to stream snow showers into the northern Sierra early Wednesday morning as of the 5 AM snowfall report only a coating of snow had fallen so far. The snow showers are just starting to stream north.
We will see an increase in the snow showers through the day on Wednesday and then the low approaching from the northwest will spin through CA on Thursday keeping the snow showers going. The winds are not strong with this storm. We’ll see highs into the 30s during the day and 20s at night.
As the low moves east Thursday afternoon we could see a final push of snow showers but from the north as the flow turns northerly on the backside of the low. The snow levels are to the base and will drop as low as 4000 ft. Wednesday night before rising back up to around 5000-5500 ft. Thursday.
The final snowfall forecast was put out yesterday before the storm arrived. No changes as I’m still expecting 3-5 inches of snow near the base and 5-9 inches on the upper mountain by Friday morning.
Friday – Sunday Weather:
High pressure builds in over the region for the weekend. Highs remain in the 30s for Friday and then warm into the 40s for the weekend.
Monday – Tuesday Storm:
The trend continues to be for this system to split with the southern piece spinning up off of CA and moving inland towards southern CA by Monday night. We will be on the northern edge in the Tahoe basin per most model forecasts for the track of the storm, but some still track it far enough north for a wetter solution.
There is a lack of strong winds again which could shadow the mountains from the heavier precipitation. Snow levels look to stay below the base through Tuesday. Highs into the 40s ahead of the storm for the lower elevations on Monday and 30s for highs on Tuesday.
I don’t trust the precipitation forecasts this morning with the trends continuing to be farther to our south with the track. Right now, I feel like snowfall totals could be similar to the current storm or less. I will start to look at potential snowfall totals over the next few days as the storm moves into the 5-day window.
Bigger Storm Possible:
Additional troughs dig into the West Coast next week with general lower heights and troughing expected to stay over the region through at least the 17th. We are still tracking the next storm for next Wednesday – Thursday in hopes that it is a bigger storm. It still looks that way this morning.
It’s too early to look at snowfall details as storms tend to change as they get closer, but the snow levels look to stay below the base, and the current precipitation forecasts suggest enough for at least 2-3 feet of snow on the mountain.
We’ll continue to watch the trends closely over the next week. Hopefully, we will get at least one storm measured in feet during this active first half of March.
Active Pattern Continues:
Additional storms are possible later next week through the 17th of March. Currently, they don’t look as big as the Wed-Thu storm, and the forecasts could fluctuate a lot as they get closer, but the storm door looks to stay open with a chance for additional storms.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show the jet stream weakening and the troughs pulling north with high pressure starting to build in off of the CA coast during the 3rd week of March beyond the 17th. That could bump the storm track to our north.
That doesn’t necessarily mean we see a totally dry pattern. As the jet stream weakens and shifts north as we go into the spring season, storms tend to spin up in the eastern Pacific and then become cut-off lows cut off from the weaker jet stream. They lose their steering winds and can wobble down the West Coast slowly.
They are very hard to forecast with their track and timing becoming uncertain. Forecasting in general becomes much harder for storms as we go through spring because of this and several factors that change the weather patterns as spring arrives. These cut-off lows can move through our region slowly at times, and if they do they can bring big snowfall totals.
We’ll continue to watch the trends through April to see if any late-season storms could bring us some spring powder days…
BA
