Sunday Weather:
We’ll have clouds and a little sun for Sunday as the next storm approaches. The big weather event for Sunday will be the gusty winds with ridgetop winds gusting up to 60-70+ mph from the southwest. That will likely close some upper mountain lifts. Highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees down at the base.
Sunday Night Snow Showers:
The latest model runs have slowed the next system with only a few scattered snow showers likely by the end of the day into the evening, and then a period of steadier snow showers overnight as the front moves through, and diminishing into Monday morning.
The latest model runs have continued the daily trend of weakening this system further with less precipitation reaching the northern Sierra. The snow levels look to be up around 7000 ft. Sunday evening and drop Sunday night to around 5500-6500 ft. by midnight and 4500-5500 ft. by Monday morning.
We could see a dusting to an inch of snow at the base and 1-3 inches on the mountain by Monday morning.
Monday Weather:
Some clouds and a little sun for Monday as well between storms. We could see some scattered snow showers in the morning from the departing storm and again by the end of the day into the evening from the next approaching storm. Snow level could rise up to around 7000 ft. again similar to Sunday.
Even with a storm approaching, the latest model runs show the winds dipping into the middle of the day before increasing again into Monday night. So we should see most lifts open for Monday to ski any fresh snow.
Monday Night – Tuesday Storm:
The latest model runs continue to show this as the wettest storm of the series, but not that wet, and they continue to trend this system drier as well. We should see a period of steadier snow showers later Monday night into Tuesday, with snow showers diminishing Tuesday afternoon and clearing Tuesday night.
Ridgetop winds from the west increase again with gusts up to 60-70+ mph, possibly closing some upper mountain lifts again. Highs in the 30s. Snow levels up near 7000 ft. Monday evening falling below the base Monday night, and then back up to around 6000-7000 ft. Tuesday, with maybe a little rain mixing in near the base, especially with any lighter showers.
That would give us low snow ratios again with this system, so no fluffy powder is expected with these storms. Snow ratios could average around 10-14:1 again on the mountain above 7000 ft. In total Monday through Tuesday, we could see 1-3 inches of snow near the base and 1-5 inches on the mountains.
Gusty Northeast Winds & Drier:
With high-pressure building in over the Pacific NW and low pressure over the Southwest, the pressure gradient in between is forecast to tighten over CA by Wednesday night into Friday. That will create gusty northeast winds by later Wednesday into Wednesday night that could last into Friday morning before subsiding.
The forecast models tend to underforecast the wind speeds in northeast wind events. They show ridgetop gusts peaking around 50-60+ mph on Thursday, but they could be higher. Some upper mountain lifts could be closed Thursday and the winds will make it feel colder.
Outside of the winds, we expect mostly sunny skies each day. Highs into the 30s for the upper mountain Wednesday and 40s for the lower elevations. Then 40s for Thursday and near 50 degrees at the base by Friday.
Mild Next Weekend:
Strong high pressure is still forecast to be over the West Coast next weekend. That will continue the dry pattern and temperatures should warm into the 50s for the weekend, making for a beautiful St. Patrick’s Day.
Long-Range Forecast:
The week of the 18th the ridge starts to weaken a bit and retrograde west off the coast. That should keep us dry through at least the 20th.
By the 21st through the last week of March, the long-range models show the ridge farther offshore in the northeast Pacific. That should at least drive some cooler air down into the West from the north. It could open the door to weak systems dropping down from the north or cutting under the ridge from the west.
We’ll continue to watch the trends to see if we can add to the already above-average March snowfall, thanks to starting off the month with the big blizzard.
BA