The Season Ahead
With some colder temperatures at the end of October we were able to make some snow on the mountain, but we will need more cold and even better will be man-made snow. We have cold and snow in the forecast, but what could we see for the rest of the season?
We have La Nina conditions this fall, which means that the water in the south Pacific near the equator is colder than average. That pattern tends to bring a drier than average season to the southwestern U.S. and wetter than average to the northwestern U.S., with Squaw Valley in the middle.
We have seen very variable snowfall amounts during La Nina season. From 60% of average up to 160% of average snowfall. Averaging all La Nina seasons together we historically have seen average snowfall, around 103% of the seasonal average.
Looking ahead to this season we are looking at the moderate/strong La Nina conditions and other patterns that can affect our winter weather pattern. Looking at some of the most recent climate model forecasts, they suggest we could err on the positive side of the dividing line between above or below-average precipitation this season.
That is not a guarantee of course. Long-range models don’t have a great track record. Being that we are sitting right in the middle between above and below average precipitation in most La Nina seaons, we have to hope the storm track is far enough south to bring us large helping of snow this season. So keep the snow dances going.