Snowfall Report:
We saw a dusting of snow even down to the base of the mountain Monday evening! Based on the webcams early Tuesday morning, it looks like we may have picked up 5-6+ inches of new snow at the top!
Tuesday Snow Showers:
A mix of clouds and sun for Tuesday with highs only in the 30s to near 40 degrees at the base. The strong winds have come down. A weak system moving through Tuesday afternoon could spark off some scattered snow showers, and possibly some rain mixed in at the base as snow levels rise to around 6500-7000 ft. by afternoon.
We could see an additional dusting of snow on the mountain with the high end of an inch of snow possible on the peaks.
Drier and Warming:
It stays cool through Friday with highs in the 40s along with mostly sunny skies each day. Maybe a few extra clouds moving through Friday as a system splits apart as it moves inland. Overnight lows in the 20s should allow for snowmaking.
High pressure is forecast to strengthen a bit over the region over the weekend. That will continue the dry pattern and will warm temperatures a bit, into the 50s for highs at the base Saturday and Sunday.
Possible Stronger Storms:
Next week has started to look more interesting over the past 2 days as the forecast models have been coming into better agreement that we could see a stronger storm at some point between the 14th-17th.
A large low-pressure system is forecast to spin down into the trough along the West Coast by the 14th. Some models show the first system staying off the coast through at least Tuesday as it cuts off from the west-east flow. Others are more progressive and show rain and snow moving into northern CA as early as Monday night.
There is better agreement on a stronger storm moving into the West Coast Wed-Thu. This could be a slow-moving storm with plenty of moisture. Overall, we could see a stormy pattern from Monday night through Friday, or by midweek through Friday. We’ll continue to watch the trends as this could be the start of stronger storms this season.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range forecast models are coming into better agreement in showing troughing and an active pattern possibly continuing for CA through the 3rd week of November, and possibly into the last week. All of the ensemble mean model runs from the major models are showing well above average precipitation for the 3rd week of November for the northern/central Sierra.
We’ll continue to watch the trends with the hope that they are right, and that hopefully we can lay a nice snow base to start the season off right!
BA
