The Holiday Weekend:
We are still on track for a nice Thanksgiving holiday. The next chance for snow looks to hold off until late Sunday night or Monday morning.
High pressure will dominate the pattern into the weekend with highs into the 40s and near 50 degrees at the base, along with mostly sunny skies during the day.
Breezy east winds through Thursday over the peaks from the east, turning west Friday into the weekend. Gusts up to 30+ mph at times. Slightly cooler Sunday but highs are still in the 40s as a pattern change is just starting.
Sunday night through next week, and likely into the weekend of the 3rd-4th, we are shifting the pattern to a cold trough digging down into the West and we will see colder air move into the region. With the trough, we also have the storm door open to storms diving into the trough from Sunday night through the weekend of the 3rd – 4th.
With the pattern forecast, the storms would dive down the west side of the trough which means they could track just off the coast pulling in lots of moisture, or just inland pulling in less moisture. They can also miss northern CA just to our east.
Overall a colder pattern starting Monday seems a lock, and a more active pattern as well with the trough over the West, but the details of each system we will have to iron out as we get closer. The latest model runs show the chance for 3 storms. 1) Monday, 2) Thursday the 1st, and 3) Saturday the 3rd.
This storm is still 5.5 – 6 days out, but I want to look at what the models suggest we could see through Monday. The latest model runs show snow showers moving in during the early morning hours Monday and snow ending by Monday evening. Snow levels dropping below the base at the start.
High temperatures dropping into the 30s at the base and 20s up top. Ridgetop winds likely increasing from the southwest with strong gusts up to 80+ mph at times. So a stormy day for skiing. Looking at the possible snow ratios and the model average for precipitation, we could see 1-3 inches of snow at the base and 3-6 inches on the upper mountain by Monday night.
Tuesday through Saturday the 3rd we could see additional storms move through. Tuesday into next Wednesday the 30th looks like it could be cold and dry with highs in the 30s at the base and 20s up top.
Next Thursday the 1st could be the next chance for a storm. Again, the track of this system will determine how wet it is. We will continue to watch the trends on this storm as well as we get closer.
The models show a 3rd system around Saturday the 3rd that may also track down the coast with similar forecasting headaches.
One or more of these systems could track just right to bring us big snow, but the models will likely change day to day as they try to determine the track. A slight jog east or west with the tracks can make a big difference with the snowfall forecast.