We have one last mild day on Wednesday with partly-mostly sunny skies and highs into the 50s.
Thanksgiving Cold Front:
We have a cold front moving through from the northeast on Thanksgiving Day that will usher in colder air for the weekend. Highs will drop into the 30s through Sunday with overnight lows down into the teens. That is great news for snowmaking.
The front moving through on Thursday is moisture-starved. We could see some clouds and maybe some scattered snow showers during the day as the front moves through. Then we have a cold east flow into the weekend, so be prepared for the cold if you plan to be on the mountains.
High pressure is still forecast to build back in over the West Coast through the end of the month. That should continue the dry pattern and we should see some warming of the temperatures during the last few days of the month. We could also see inversions return with warmer temperatures up top at night.
First Week of December:
We have been eagerly awaiting the month of December as that is when we tend to see the storm activity pick up during El Nino seasons. The latest ensemble mean models agree that the ridge shifts away from the West Coast and is replaced by a deep trough during the first week of December which would indicate that the storm door will be opening.
Taking a look at the latest model forecasts for the Pacific jet stream, they are finally showing a stronger and more parallel jet across the Pacific during the first week of December, and a southern branch developing. That will help with storms spinning up and moving east into the West Coast.
We’ll continue to watch the trends as we get closer. Hopefully, this will be the start of some good storms that produce snowfall.
The Rest of December:
The long-range models continue to be in decent agreement that the month of December as a whole will be active with above-average precipitation for CA, and below-average for the Pacific NW. That looks like an El Nino pattern.
No need to fret with the slow start to the snowfall season this November. It’s not uncommon to open with snowmaking only by Thanksgiving. The snowfall averages are close to double for December vs November. Let’s hope big things are on the way for December.