It’s a chill start to Thursday with temperatures starting out in the teens on the upper mountain and 20s at the base. We will see mostly sunny skies with highs warming into the 30s on the upper mountain and 40s at the base. The gusty winds have finally fallen off.
Friday through Sunday we expect mostly sunny skies each day with a slow warming trend as a weak high-pressure ridge builds over the West.
Highs into the 40s on Friday to near 50 degrees at the base. Then 50s at the base and 40s above 8000 ft. Sat-Sun. The winds look to be lighter through Saturday. Sunday we could see increasing southwest winds with ridgetop gusts up to 50-60+mph by afternoon, possibly affecting a few upper mountain lifts.
Monday we should stay dry during the day with mostly sunny skies and some high clouds possible later in the day. Ridgetop winds could increase to 60-70+ mph from the southwest, which could continue to affect some exposed upper mountain lifts. Highs may cool into the 40s.
Tuesday – Wednesday Snow Showers:
By Tuesday we still expect a large trough to dig into the West. That should continue the gusty winds as well as bring in even colder air and maybe some showers on the southern edge of the storm track.
Highs could dip into the 30s for Tuesday with snow levels near to below the base. That could bring some snow showers to the mountain. The snow showers could move in as early as Monday night and could possibly linger into Wednesday before clearing.
The latest model runs keep most of the heavier precipitation to our north through Wednesday, with some light precipitation amounts reaching the northern Sierra. We’ll continue to watch the trends over the next few days to see if we could pick up a few inches of fresh snow on the mountain.
The long-range models continue to suggest that troughing is near or over the West Coast through most of the period through the 26th. That could keep the door open to additional systems possibly tracking through northern CA and bringing us some precipitation. The spring models are terrible at forecasting specific storms so we won’t try to speculate anything beyond 7 days, just that the pattern could remain unsettled.
The ensemble mean models suggest that above-average precipitation is possible for the Pacific NW into northern CA through the period, with Tahoe on the edge between above-average precip to the north and below-average to the south. We’ll continue to watch the trends and will keep an eye out for any systems that could possibly bring more than just snow showers and light accumulations to the mountain.
Beyond the 26th, the long-range models suggest that high pressure builds in over the West Coast through the end of April. That could bring a prolonged drier and milder pattern.