Weekend Weather:
We are enjoying a nice weekend with sun and mild temperatures. Highs into the 40s for Saturday and Sunday, and near 50 degrees at the base on Saturday. Sunday we will see ridgetop winds gusting up to 30-40+mph from the southwest by afternoon.
Monday Storm:
The latest forecast model runs have slowed the arrival of precipitation until early Monday morning. We could see a period of steadier rain and snow by afternoon, and then showers lingering into Monday night before tapering off by Tuesday morning.
Snow levels still look to hover near to just above the base Monday, around 5800-6800 ft. with any heavier showers dragging toward the lower end. Then dropping below 5000 ft. by early Tuesday morning behind the cold front. Ridgetop winds on Monday will be gusting over 100 mph, so expect a lot of upper mountain lift closures.
The snowfall forecast has trended down about an inch this morning due to the downward precipitation trends on most models. We could see around 1-4 inches near the base, 2-6 inches near mid-mountain, and 3-7 inches up top by Tuesday morning.
Tuesday – Wednesday:
We will see the winds drop on Tuesday and the sun come out, with mostly sunny skies for Wednesday. Highs in the 30s on the upper mountain and 40s for the lower elevations near the base.
Late Week Storm:
A broad area of low pressure is forecast to be spinning slowly down the coast over the 4-day period. We could see heavier snow move in sometime on Thursday as the initial front reaches the northern Sierra, and then several waves could rotate inland keeping the snow going into Sunday before ending by Monday the 4th.
This storm will have colder air with snow levels likely starting near the base and then dropping lower through the storm as the colder air works south. The ensemble mean models show over 5 inches of liquid possible over the 3-4 day period from Thursday – Sunday.
We have been tracking this -PNA cold trough pattern for the beginning of March for about two weeks now, and the models have been consistent in showing this storm over the last several days. If the forecasts hold over the next 5 days, we should be measuring in feet. We’ll be watching the trends on this storm closely all week with more details as it gets closer.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models are still struggling with the pattern during the week of the 4th. Some models shift the troughing a bit east over the Rockies with any storms taking a drier track with a drier pattern overall from the 4th-10th. Other forecast models are holding the trough back over the West Coast during the same 7-day period, which would keep the door open to wetter storms.
We’ll continue to watch the trends to see if the late week storm will be one and done, or if the active pattern could continue through the 1st 10th days of March.
BA
