March 1st marks the beginning of Meteorological Spring, but that doesn’t mean the snow is done falling. While many assume the biggest storms are behind us, history tells a different story.
Just 10 miles North of Palisades Tahoe, along the same ridgeline, sits the Central Sierra Snow Lab at just under 7,000 feet in elevation. This research facility, staffed by full-time scientists, has been measuring and analyzing snowfall in the Tahoe region since the 1800s, with detailed daily records dating back to 1970. Because snowfall at Palisades Tahoe closely mirrors what’s recorded at the Snow Lab, their data provides a great reference for historical trends.
Since 1970, March has averaged 76 inches of snowfall, making it the second snowiest month of the year—just one inch behind February’s 77-inch average. So while many people shift their focus to springtime activities, the northern Sierra Nevada is often stacking up some of its biggest snowfall totals of the season.
Let’s look back at some BIG March totals that we’ve seen since 1970:
What is “Miracle March”? Will we see one this year?
Since 1970, March has been the snowiest month of the season in 17 out of 54 years—nearly one-third of the time. One of the most remarkable recent examples was March 2023, which brought a staggering 219 inches of snowfall, making it the second snowiest month in over five decades. As history shows, March can deliver some of the biggest storms and deepest powder days of the season, proving that winter isn’t over just because spring is on the calendar!
When snowfall is below average by the end of February but then surges in March to push us back above the seasonal average, many refer to it as a “Miracle March.”
So, will we see a Miracle March this year? While long-range storm predictions are challenging—due to the fluid and chaotic nature of the atmosphere—current weather patterns suggest that storm activity could continue into early March. In particular, there’s potential for larger storms to develop between March 12th and 17th, which could help close the snowfall gap.
As of March 3rd, Palisades Tahoe’s upper mountain has received 253 inches of snow, while the Snow Lab has recorded 237 inches. That’s about 85% of the typical snowfall for this time of year. To get back to an average season by the end of March, we’d need around 108 more inches of snow—something that has only happened 14 times in history, giving us roughly a 26% chance of a “Miracle March.”
However, several storms are now in our forecast window and reaching the March snowfall average is a realistic goal. With this season’s biggest two-day snowfall sitting at 29 inches, there’s still a good chance we could see our biggest storm yet—bringing some great powder days along with it!
Fingers crossed…BA
