Dry & Mild Through Saturday:
A large and strong area of high pressure is sitting over the West through the end of the week into Saturday. We will see mostly sunny days and mild temperatures. Highs into the 60s at the base and 50s up top.
Breezy southwest winds are possible up top Friday into Saturday as a trough approaches the West Coast that will bring pattern change Sunday into Monday. Gusts up to 40+ mph are possible both days.
Sunday – Monday System:
We will be dealing with a splitting trough and a closed low forming off the West Coast by Sunday. These types of systems are cut off from the flow of the jet stream and can have a mind of their own with their track and timing. The latest forecast model runs track the low into Central CA with the heaviest precipitation to the south of the Tahoe Basin.
The timing we will still have to fine-tune with some models bringing in rain & snow by late afternoon/evening Sunday and some holding off until early morning Monday. Then rain & snow showers through the day on Monday and possibly lingering into Monday night before clearing out. Sunday we could see increasing clouds & winds from the south with gusts up to 50-60+ mph up top. Highs into the 50s at the base & 40s up top.
Snow levels could start out around 7500-8000 ft. Sunday evening and then fall overnight and should be below the base by Monday morning. Then they could rise again Monday up to 6750 – 7250 ft. by afternoon. Then they could drop below the base again by the end Monday night. Colder Monday with highs in the 30s and the winds should drop.
We will have to continue to fine-tune the details of this system. But as of Thursday morning, we could see 0-2 inches at the base with a rain to snow to rain to snow back and forth possible. The upper mountain could see 1-4 inches of new snow by Monday evening.
Long-Range:
Tuesday through the end of next week we could be sandwiched between a high-pressure ridge off the West Coast and a low-pressure trough to our east. That should keep us dry with mostly sunny days returning, but it could prevent a big warm-up. Highs could return to the 50s at the base and 40s up top.
For the first weekend in April, we have the return of the Winter Wondergrass Festival after a two-year absence! The weather could be springlike if the latest forecast model runs verify.
The week of the 4th the long-range models are hinting at a pattern change back to cooler and more unsettled weather, with the chance for a storm or two. We will continue to watch the trends as we get closer.
BA
