Snowfall Report:
We picked up 7 inches of new snow at the base, 9 inches at mid-mountain, and 8 inches up top. The top of the mountain saw winds gusting over 70 mph so it’s likely that 10-11 inches fell and is blown into some deeper drifts. We expected 5-12 inches from the storm from the base to the top, so the storm performed as expected.
Wednesday Weather:
We still have some scattered snow showers around this morning, but most of the precipitation has cleared the region. The winds have fallen off and temperatures are in the 20s. We will have a few scattered snow showers around throughout the day with 1-2 inches of additional snowfall possible. Highs into the 20s on the mountain.
Thursday – Friday:
We will have mostly sunny skies for Thursday. Then partly sunny Friday with some clouds and maybe a few scattered snow showers moving through. Highs into the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the upper elevations. Winds could gust up to 40-50+ mph from the north over the exposed ridges Friday.
Saturday Storm:
The latest model runs continue to trend the Saturday system toward a track that drops down more over land with less moisture. We could see snow showers move in between mid-morning and early afternoon on Saturday. Steadier snow could fall Saturday afternoon-evening and then tapering to scattered showers Saturday night and clearing out by Sunday morning.
It’s going to be cold and windy with highs only in the 20s up on the mountains and ridgetop winds gusting from the west up to 70-80+ mph. That will make it feel much colder with the wind chills, and will likely close some exposed upper mountain ski lifts.
What is going to help boost snowfall with this storm will be the cold air. Snow levels look to start below 5000 ft. Saturday and and fall below 2000 ft. by the end Saturday night! Even though the latest model runs show less than an inch of precipitation, the cold air will boost snow:liquid ratios up to around 14-20:1. We could see 5-10 inches at the base and 9-14 inches on the mountain by Sunday morning.
Sunday – Monday:
Sunday into Monday we expect a break in the storms with mostly sunny skies each day. Highs into the 30s for the lower elevations near lake level and 20s for the upper elevations. Ridgetop winds could still be a little gusty on the ridges from the north, with gusts up to 40-50+ mph on Sunday and 30-40+ on Monday. That will make it feel a little colder so dress warm.
Long-Range Forecast:
The next trough is forecast to dig into the West in a similar fashion as the weekend Tuesday into Wednesday, where the ridge is near the West Coast and the trough over the West with CA on the western edge. That means the next storm is likely to track down from the north near to just inside the coast.
Some forecast models show a track more over land with a weaker system possibly bringing snow by Tuesday night into next Wednesday, while others track the storm closer to the coast and tap a bit more moisture, with heavier snow possible.
The latest model runs show a low-pressure center sitting near the Pacific NW coast and moving south very slowly through the end of next week, with several waves possibly moving south into CA over a 3-4 day period.
This setup is interesting to watch. If the storm tracks down a bit east over land the drier models would be right and we would only see several inches of snow next week, but if the low tracks south along the coast and draws in more moisture, it will be sending it into cold air, and that could mean feet instead of inches Tue-Fri next week. We will be watching the trends closely.
BA
