Friday – Saturday:
The snooze weather continues with sunny days and mild temperatures, with highs into the 50s during the day.
Sunday Pattern Change:
The pattern starts to change on Sunday as the next storm moves through CA bringing colder air and some snow to the Sierra. The snow showers could reach the mountain around 4 AM on Sunday with the snow showers lingering into Monday before ending by the end of the day.
Highs drop into the 30s on both days with 20s on the mountain at night. The winds won’t be that strong with this system as it drops south through CA, with ridgetop gusts from the SW only up to 20-40+ mph. But that will also limit the amount of preciptiation and snow that will push up and over the mountains.
The snow levels could start out near the base Sunday morning and then drop into Sunday night. Most of the snow is expected to fall by Monday morning. Totals by the end of the day on Monday could be around 2-4 at the base and 3-6 inches up top.
Tuesday Break:
A quick break between storms on Tuesday with partly sunny skies. Highs in the 30s on the mountain to around 40 degrees at the base.
Wednesday – Thursday System:
The latest forecast model runs don’t agree on the timing of the next system moving in, but they do agree on the trend farther north with precipitation now reaching Tahoe. Some models show snow showers returning as early as Tuesday night.
This is another weak and not-so-windy system and could end up being very similar to the Sunday-Monday system. Depending on the timing, the snow showers could linger into Thursday before the storm clears out.
The snow levels could start near to just above the base again before falling during the storm, so this system could be mostly all snow as well. We’ll continue to watch the trends with more details on potential snowfall once the storm is within the 5-day forecast window.
Drier Weekend:
By Friday the 7th through the weekend of the 8th-9th, the long-range models continue to show high pressure briefly building in over CA with a drier pattern for the Sierra. We will see sunny days return, with highs warming into the 40s, and maybe back up into the 50s for the lower elevations for the weekend.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show the pattern shifting pretty quickly beyond the 9th, with high pressure shifting east and a large trough swinging into the West Coast between the 10th – 12th. That could be associated with a stronger and larger storm that could bring heavier precipitation and snow to the Sierra.
Beyond the 12th, the long-range models don’t agree on whether the eastern Pacific high-pressure ridge will shift close enough to the West Coast to push the sotrm track to our north, or if it will stay far enough off the coast to keep the door open to storms continuing.
We’ll continue to watch the trends to see if the active pattern will continue through mid-month.
BA
