It’s time to start looking at the forecast for early-season storms as we head into this Strong El Niño season. There is never a guarantee of above-average snowfall during Strong El Niño seasons; 3 of the past 7 seasons saw below-average snowfall, including 2015-16. But we should lean towards an above-average season with the pattern we are currently seeing.
This Week’s Rain/High Elevation Snow:
A cut-off low is dropping south down the West Coast this week and will move inland Wednesday into Thursday. That will push moisture into most of the West, including the Sierra. The latest model runs are showing a few tenths up to an inch of total precipitation possible by Thursday night.
Unfortunately, this will be a mild storm with high snow levels, above 8000-9000 ft. for most of the storm according to OpenSnow’s latest PEAKS model forecast. They lower a bit towards the end of the storm, possibly enough for a coating of snow above 8000 ft.
That is common this time of year, to see high-elevation snow from early-season storms. We will continue to watch the trends as this system arrives, but it mainly looks to impact the highest elevations. Highs in the 50s near the base will drop to near or just below 50 degrees by Thursday.
The Weekend:
High pressure builds back in over the weekend with a slight warming trend and bringing back a drier pattern. That could last into early next week…
Long-Range Outlook:
Over the past week, there have been signs of a bigger pattern change possible around the end of October into the beginning of November. The long-range models have been showing possible troughing over the West Coast that could hang near the West Coast for a while.
That could open the door to a more active pattern with several storms trying to move through the West Coast. The long-range precipitation anomaly forecasts are showing above-average precipitation possible during the period.
We will continue to watch this closely. November historically sees above-average snowfall during Strong El Niño seasons on average. We’ll have to see if the fun will get started in November again this season.
BA
