Snowfall Report:
A final 1-3 inches of snow fell with the snow showers on Friday bringing the final storm total to 3 inches at the base, which was within the forecast for the storm, and 17 inches up top, which was 1 inch less than forecast.
Saturday – Wednesday Weather:
High pressure is near the West Coast bringing a drier pattern for the weekend into early next week. We will see sunny days through Tuesday and partly-mostly sunny for Wednesday with a chance for scattered snow showers as the next storm approaches.
It stays fairly cold with highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations through the period, along with lighter winds.
Thursday – Friday Storm:
The latest trend on the models continues to show a large storm approaching the coast by Wednesday night and pushing inland Thursday morning with snow showers reaching the Tahoe basin by mid-morning, and steadier snow Thursday afternoon into Friday morning, with snow showers possibly lingering through the day on Friday before clearing.
This storm taps into quite a bit of Pacific moisture. Notice the moisture feed under the low is aimed at central and not northern CA this time. That would finally put us on the colder side of the storm but with the heaviest precipitation likely to our south. Thursday will be windy and then dropping into Friday. Highs in the 30s.
The latest model runs still show 2-4 inches of liquid falling over the mountain. The heaviest precipitation is likely to our south, so I’m leaning more towards the 2 inches vs 4 inches of preciptiation, which could bring around 1-2+ feet of snow.
The latest model runs peak snow levels around 6000-6500 ft. briefly but we could see all snow to the base if the latest model trends continue. I’ll have more details on the potential snowfall amounts starting Sunday morning as the storm moves into the 5-day forecast window.
Drier Pattern:
The long-range models continue to show high-pressure building in over CA for the weekend of the 15th-16th bringing us a drier pattern behind the storm. That pattern could continue through the week of the 17th with the storm track mainly to the north into the Pacific NW, but a storm could brush us on the southern edge.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show high pressure sitting over the West Coast into the last weekend of February and possibly amplified even farther north. That could bump the storm track even farther north with a drier pattern for the entire West Coast.
There are some signs that the large trough south of the Aleutians to the west of the ridge could push in closer to the West Coast during the last few days of the month, so we’ll continue to watch those trends to see if a wetter pattern could return before the end of the month.
BA
