Sunny Days Continue:
No changes to the forecast for the next 7 days through the 21st. We are stuck with high pressure over the region. We will continue to see sunny days with highs in the 40s, to near 50 degrees for the lowest elevations near the base.
That will bring us a beautiful holiday weekend for skiing, along with soft snow on the slopes.
Long-Range Outlook:
The latest run of most of the long-range models has trended towards the trough digging into the West around the 22nd-25th, staying a bit farther east of the Sierra. We will likely see some cooler air, but maybe not as cold as previous forecasts. Also, less of a chance for the cold/weak systems dropping in from the north with snow showers.
High pressure is expected to rebuild over the West through the 28th, with the dry pattern continuing from today (Thursday) for at least the next 14 days…
End of the Month Hope?
In my last extended range forecast discussion Tuesday morning, I mentioned that the longer-range models were hinting at a broader trough in the Eastern Pacific by the end of the month, starting around the 29th-30th. They are still showing this shift in the pattern.
The large area of lower heights is associated with an extension of a stronger jet stream towards the West Coast, with the active phase of the MJO moving east into phase 8 (central Pacific) likely helping to juice that extension.
I am 50/50 right now on believing this. We should be wary of any forecasts beyond 10 days. Hopefully, the jet extends far enough, and the trough pushes far enough east to dislodge the ridge over the West enough for wet storms to reach us during the last few days of January.
All we can do is watch the trends each day as we get closer…
BA
P.S. I’ve been shifting to every other day forecasts this week as we are stuck in this prolonged dry pattern. It’s just as painful for me to write about another 1-2 weeks of dry weather as it is for you to read it. My next post will likely be Saturday morning so that I can have some extra time to hopefully find you some storms in the long-range.
