Saturday – Sunday Cold & Snow Showers:
Sun and clouds with scattered snow showers and cold air will be the weather for most of the weekend. Temperatures are only in the teens on the mountain Saturday morning and 20s down at the base. We’ll see high temperatures only in the 20s through Sunday. Ridgtop gusts up to 30-50+ mph will make it feel even colder.
The cold front has moved through and an area of low pressure is spinning up in the base of the trough over central CA. That low will draw in some moisture and snow showers will develop and wrap around the north side of the low into the northern Sierra. The trend has been slower with the development of the showers so we may not see any snow showers until later in the afternoon into Saturday night.
With the east flow on the north side of the low with this system, we are expecting shadowing and very little precipitation NW of the lake over the mountain. Scattered snow showers may hang on during the day on Sunday but we expect less coverage with some sun and clouds again and another cold day.
With the cold temperatures any snow that falls will be light and fluffy powder that blows away easily. We will likely only see a dusting up to 2 inches of snow in total by Sunday morning. The wettest models only show up to 3 inches of snow at best up top.
Monday – Thursday Weather:
High pressure builds back in over the region by midweek. That will bring sunny days and warming temperatures. We start out with highs in the 30s on Monday, and maybe into Tuesday, but then 40s for highs by Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday System:
The latest model runs still show a system falling apart as it moves inland on Friday. It could bring some showers on Friday that possibly linger into next Saturday. We will continue to watch the trends all week, but right now it still looks like a wimpy system with only light snow showers possible for the mountain
Long-Range Forecast:
The first week of February starts next Saturday. The long-range models are at odds with how the pattern evolves through the first week of February. The European model continues to show a cold trough digging in over the West but high pressure close to the West Coast keeping the storm track mainly to our north.
The 7-day precipitation forecast for the first 7 days of February on the latest deterministic model runs only show light showers from the Friday – Saturday system that fall next Saturday, and then it’s dry through the 7th. However, some previous runs suggested a more active pattern during the 1st week of February.
We’ll continue to watch the trends and hope that we see a more active pattern starting Friday into 1st week of February, and hopefully for most of February as well.
BA
