Friday Weather:
Snow levels could dip near 6500 ft. as the precipitation starts to fall into drier air Friday morning, but then rise into the afternoon. The winds increase through the day with ridgetop gusts up to 70-90+ mph during the afternoon. Highs in the 30s. Precipitation rates increase going into Friday night and snow levels continue to rise.
Wet & Windy Weekend:
Ridgetop winds will be gusting from the SW over 100+ mph at times over the ridges through Sunday. Highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees down at the base.The forecast models are showing 5-10 inches of liquid falling over the mountain by Monday morning. We will see heavy precipitation through the weekend with snow levels continuing to rise.
Snow levels could be around 7000-8000 ft. by Friday evening and staying there into early Saturday morning. Then rising up to around 8000-9000 ft. by Saturday evening with the heaviest precipitation pushing in, and peaking around 9000-10,000 ft. Saturday night. They could lower down near 7500-8000 ft. Sunday night. That means rain to the top peaks is possible by Saturday night.
This is a mess with snow falling for the upper mountain through Friday night, and then turning to rain through Saturday night, and then some snow possible at the end Sunday night. It also makes snowfall forecasting accurately nearly impossible, along with the varying preciptiation totals that are possible.
Snow levels are very hard to forecast in AR events. We don’t know exactly how much warm air will flow in and where the freezing levels will be. Taking the model averages for precipitation totals and snow levels, here is my best try at a snowfall forecast for the weekend, for totals by early Monday morning. Rain at the base, 8-16 inches of mix near mid-mountain, and 32-42 inches of wet snow up top.
Monday – Tuesday Snow:
We are expecting a lull in the heavy preciptiation for Monday but showers continuing on Monday if the latest model runs verify. The strong winds will continue through Tuesday, so don’t expect a drop in the winds until Wednesday.
The AR shifts back south Monday night and the low off the coast moves inland Tuesday. That will bring a final round of heavy precipitation through Tuesday, with showers possibly lingering into Tuesday night before ending by Wednesday morning.
This is a colder half of the storm with colder air finally moving in from the north as the system shifts south Monday night into Tuesday. Snow levels could be around 7500-8000 ft. with the showers on Monday, but then could drop to 5500-6000 ft. Monday night and 5000-6000 ft. by Tuesday afternoon. Dropping much lower at the end Tuesday night.
That means snow down to the base is expected for the heaviest precipitation period Monday night into Tuesday! We could see significant snowfall for all elevations during this 36-hour period. By early Wednesday morning, we could see additional snowfall totals of around 17-23 inches at the base, 26-33 inches near mid-mountain, and 33-41 inches up top.
Wednesday – Friday:
The latest model runs show that we at least get some snow by Thursday as that moves through after a possible break on Wednesday. Some of the latest runs suggest the low could draw in another round of wet weather from the low off the coast, with a small AR even possible with heavier snow Thursday into Friday. We will be watching the setup and trends closely over the next few days.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models still show a possible break by the 9th into early week for the week of the 10th as high pressure builds in a bit closer to the coast.
We may continue to see a strong ridge up near Alaska through mid-month, and the trend continues to be towards the western trough shifting farther west again over the West Coast as we get closer to mid-month. This setup would drive cold air into the West through mid-month.
If the trough digs off the coast, low-pressure systems could spin up and drop down the west side along the coast and could draw in Pacific moisture, and send it into the cold air. It is a good setup to see what I like to call Powder Machines. We’ll have to see if we can get a couple as we get closer to mid-February.
BA
