Thursday – Friday Weather:
We have a short break between storms Thursday through Friday. Thursday we will have mostly sunny skies and highs into the 30s. Friday we will have some sun with some clouds and a stray snow shower possible from a weak system moving through to our north.
Saturday Wind & Snow:
I’m emphasizing wind in the titles because I think a lot of snow-starved skiers will head up this weekend for the storm, and I want to make sure everyone is aware that we will have strong winds on Saturday with ridgetop gusts from the west up to 80-90+ mph, and maybe hitting 100 mph on some peaks. So expect quite a few upper mountain lift closures.
The storm should start to push snow showers into the Tahoe basin between 7-10 AM, with steadier snow pushing in through the afternoon as the low drops down the coast. This is a fast-moving and cold storm that should taper to snow showers Saturday night and clears out by Sunday morning.
We still have some big model differences on the track of the storm which is still giving us a big range of solutions for total precipitation and snowfall. Snow levels look to start and stay well below the base. Snow ratios could average 12-19:1 from the base up to 9000 ft. respectively, which would bring powdery snow to the mountain.
It’s hard to forecast a storm where some forecast models only show 8 inches of snow while others show up to 2+ feet. Taking the model averages, it currently looks like we could see 8-14 inches at the base and 11-18 inches on the mountain by Sunday morning.
Sunday – Monday:
The winds come down by Sunday morning with the sun coming out during the day, but it will be cold with highs only in the 20s for the lower elevations and teens for the higher elevations, along with a breezy north wind gusting up to 30-40+ mph over the exposed ridges. That should make for a nice powder day but cold.
The breezy north winds continue Monday with mostly sunny skies and temperatures warming into the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations.
Long-Range Forecast:
The forecast models don’t agree on the track of the storms for Tuesday through next Friday either. We could see weaker systems drop down from the north with lighter snow each day. Some models show the storms tracking closer to the coast and tapping more moisture with some heavier snow, especially by Thu-Fri.
No matter what happens, it looks like we could see increasing clouds and winds on Tuesday, with ridge top gusts up to 80-90+ mph again, likely closing some upper mountain lifts. The stronger winds could continue through much of the period through Friday as each wave drops south.
These are cold systems and highs may drop into the 20s by Wednesday for the lower elevations and teens for the upper elevations. Along with the winds, it will feel really cold. Snow levels should stay well below the base with powdery snow falling on the mountain.
We could see snow showers move in by Tuesday afternoon and continue through next Friday. We will have to continue to watch the trends to see if we just see lighter snow showers each day or heavier snow by Thursday – Friday that could bring feet instead of inches.
MLK Weekend:
The long-range models continue to show the trough starting to shift east during MLK weekend, the 13th-15th. That should shift the storm track to our east with some sun and drier weather for the weekend if the current forecasts hold.
BA
