Snowfall Report:
A final 2 inches on Friday brought the final storm totals for the storm to 4 inches, and the season total to exactly 2 feet so far up top.
Saturday – Sunday Weather:
Mostly sunny during the day on Saturday and Sunday. Cold on Saturday with highs only into the 30s. Sunday we will see some warming with highs into the 40s for the lower elevations, and maybe some clouds increasing by evening ahead of the next storm:
Sunday Night – Monday System:
The next front moves through quickly Sunday night with a quick round of snow showers for the mountains. The latest model runs show precipitation pushing in NW of the lake around 8-11 PM and then sweeping through the northern Sierra overnight. Most of the precipitation is forecast to fall by early Monday morning.
The snow levels will start up around 6500-7000 ft. Sunday night and will fall well below the base by Monday morning. We could see a few scattered snow showers on Monday but with partly sunny skies and highs into the 30s. In total with this system, we could see a coating to an inch a the base and 1-3 inches of snow up top.
Tuesday:
Mostly sunny and cold on Tuesday with highs in the 30s.
Wednesday – Friday:
Yesterday we discussed the next storm pointing an Atmospheric River (AR) of moisture at northern CA from sometime on Wednesday through Friday, but possibly staying far enough to our north to keep us dry or to only bring a few showers. The latest model runs show the trough digging a bit more and farther west off the coast, with high-pressure building in a bit farther north over the West.
Some forecast models show the moisture feed even farther north today keeping us dry through Friday. That would bring us partly-mostly sunny skies with mild temperatures and gusty winds at times. Being on the south side of the flow we could see highs into the 50s for the lower elevations near the base by Thursday & Friday.
Other forecast models are farther south with the moisture feed and very close to Tahoe. That would bring us gusty winds but with a better chance for rain showers and with clouds or showers, the temperatures would be cooler. But being on the south side we would still see high snow levels, possibly staying above 10,000 ft. through Friday.
The AR tilts counterclockwise by Friday as the storm digs south off the coast, which could lessen the chance for rain if we do see some on Wednesday or Thursday. We will continue to watch this closely the next few days to see if we will see rain later this week, or if we will be dry and mild Wed-Fri.
Weekend Storm:
Next weekend the storm is still forecast to push inland directing the AR at the Sierra ahead of the cold front on Saturday, with showers possible into Sunday.
The snow levels would likely start high and then fall through the storm as colder air works in. We will be tracking this closely all week because we could see heavy rain that turns to heavy snow next week. The ensemble mean models show up to 2+ inches of precipitation falling over the weekend.
That could bring us the first significant storm of the season. The storm will be close by Wed-Fri and will have to move inland at some point, but the AR could dissipate before pushing into the Sierra. So we will track this closely this week.
Long-Range Forecast:
The trough could hang around into Monday and Tuesday the 25th-26th. That could keep the chance for snow showers and colder air around behind the weekend storm.
The long-range models continue to show high pressure possibly building over the West Coast Thanksgiving week bringing a drier period through the last day of the month. The high-pressure ridge doesn’t look very positive leaving the possibility for weak systems.
Some long-range models show the pattern opening up a bit to storm as we go into the beginning of December. Let’s hope the storms continue and continue to build the early season base.
BA
