Monday – Tuesday Snow Showers:
The Tahoe basin will be between the heaviest precipitation from a low-pressure center to the north and an AR to the south Monday into Tuesday. Some forecast models have some steadier precipitation reaching us from the north and south, while others only show lighter showers on Monday that diminish on Tuesday.
We will see snow showers increase by late morning on Monday and continue into the afternoon, possibly mixing with rain near the base. Highs in the 30s with ridgetop winds from the southwest increasing and gusting up to 60-70+ mph by the afternoon. Snow showers continue into Monday night.
The latest model runs are shifting the AR to the south faster on Tuesday with snow showers likely becoming scattered and then diminishing by afternoon or earlier. Highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s above 8000 ft. The winds will decrease through the day.
The snowfall forecast is a little tricky as it depends on how close the two systems get to the mountain. Using the latest model average we could see around 2-5 inches on the lower mountain to near the base, and 5-10 inches on the upper mountain up to the top.
Wednesday – Thanksgiving Weekend:
Not much has changed the forecast for the holiday period. High pressure will start to build in the northeast Pacific putting an end to the active storm pattern that has been bringing storms to northern CA over the past week.
We should see mostly sunny skies each day through Sunday. Highs will only be in the 30s for Wednesday with lighter winds. But then we start to warm slightly each day with highs into the 40s for the lowest elevations near the base by Thanksgiving Day, and then the 40s creeping up in elevation through Sunday.
Long-Range Forecast:
Not much has changed with the forecast in the long-range either. Very strong high pressure is still forecast to anchor in over the West during the first week of December. That will keep the storm track well to the north with a very dry West Coast, and likely milder temperatures next week. The pattern is forecast to stay like that into the second week of December.
I don’t see any signs of a big pattern change through mid-month, but I’ll keep looking…
BA
