Tuesday – Wednesday Weather:
Mostly sunny skies for Tuesday and then partly sunny for Wednesday with some clouds increasing ahead of the next storm, especially later in the day. Highs in the 30s.
Wednesday night – Friday Storm:
The latest model runs continue to speed up the arrival of the snow Thursday morning, and now show a start time between Midnight and 2 AM. Heavy snow for Thursday and a 2nd surge of heavier snow Thursday night as the low moves inland, and then snow showers into Friday before ending Friday night.
Thursday we will see strong winds with ridgetop gusts up to 70-90+ mph affecting upper mountain lifts. Highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the peaks on both days. The winds come down through the day on Friday but are still gusty over the ridges.
The snow levels start lower around 5000-5500 ft. early Wednesday morning. Then rising with the surge of heavy precipitation with the AR, but maybe only up to around 6100-6600 ft. and for only for a few/several hours during the day on Thursday. That is near to just above the base. Then falling below the base by Thursday evening for the remainder of the storm.
By Saturday morning, we could be measuring storm totals of around 23-31 inches near the base, 37-45 inches near mid-mountain, and 43-52 inches up top.
President’s Weekend Forecast:
Saturday looks to be the nicest day with sunny skies as high pressure builds in over CA. Highs in the 30s for the mountains through the weekend with high temperatures breaking into the 40s down at the base.
The systems moving through to our north Sunday into Monday continue to look like they could brush us with light showers on the southern edge. There is more model agreement on that scenario, but only light totals by Monday afternoon.
It’s not supposed to be overly windy during the period, but ridgetop gusts could reach 40-60+ mph on Sunday. The snow levels could stay up around 8000-9000 ft. and I’d lean toward the higher end if the showers are light and scattered. So mainly rain showers around both days.
Drier Pattern:
Behind the showers around on Monday, high pressure is forecast to build back in over CA and over much of the west through the end of next week and into the last weekend of February.
That doesn’t mean we don’t see another system brush us with a few rain showers during the period. But right now most of the operational model runs don’t show storms reaching us through at least the 25th-26th.
Long-Range Forecast:
The +PNA ridge pattern could continue through the end of the month into the beginning of March. Looking at the teleconnection forecasts into March, the long-range models have been suggesting a change in the pattern by the 2nd week of March, with the PNA pattern shifting to a negative (Western trough) phase.
Until then, the pattern looks to have mostly dry weather or weak systems starting Saturday. There is always a chance a storm digs south and surprises us. But you should probably get out and ski the fresh snow on Friday just in case it’s drier for a couple of weeks.
BA
