Thursday – Friday Morning Storm:
We expect the snow to push in between 8-10 AM and to continue into Thursday night. We could see snow showers linger into Friday morning and then some clearing into the afternoon, with some sun as well. Highs in the 30s for Thursday and then 30s for the lower elevations on Friday and 20s for the higher elevations.
Strong ridgetop winds for Thursday increasing to 80-100+ mph by evening and then dropping through the day on Friday. The snow levels will likely start near the base before rising during the afternoon, up to around 6300-6800 ft. by evening. They could peak around 6500-7000 ft. Thurday evening before crashing below the base into the early morning hours on Friday.
This storm is colder than the storms we’ve been seeing this week. We should see mostly all snow above 7000 ft. which covers a lot of the ski area terrain. Snow levels fluctuating below that with lower snow levels possible during heavier bursts of precipitation. By the end we could see storm totals of around 3-7 inches at the base, 14-20 inches near mid-mountain, and 18-24 inches up top.
Saturday – Wednesday Weather:
High pressure builds in closer to the West Coast blocking storms for the weekend into early next week. We should see sunny days through at least Tuesday with highs in the 30s and lighter winds. The latest trend on the models is for the next storm to be delayed until at least next Thursday, so Wednesday is currently looking like a drier day as well.
Late Week Storm:
The next storm has been delayed until next Thursday on most models. Some forecast models track the storm into northern and most of CA, while others have been suggesting the storm moves into southern CA catching Tahoe on the northern edge.
Some models clear this system out by Saturday the 15th with a drier weekend for the 15th-16th. While others keep the storm(s) going into the weekend of the 15th-16th. We’ll continue to watch the trends for this storm(s) later next week…
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to suggest that a high pressure ridge builds in over SoCal during the week of the 17th with the storm track lifting north. The ensemble mean models continue to show a wet pattern continuing for the Pacific Northwest, but a drying trend for southern CA, and Tahoe on the southern edge or below the storm track.
We’ll be watching the trends in the pattern closely to see if we will go into a drier pattern during the 3rd week of February or if we will still get at least some weak systems.
BA
