Saturday Sun:
Saturday is the first day of Meteorological spring, and it will feel like spring with sunny skies and mild temperatures. Highs in the 50s on the mountain to near 60 degrees at the base.
Sunday Snow Showers:
Snow showers move in early Sunday morning and continue into Sunday evening. Then diminishing overnight into Monday morning. Highs drop into the 30s.
The snow levels should start near the base and then hover around 5000-5500 ft. on Sunday before falling as low as 4000 ft. Sunday night. That means a system with all snow to the base.
In total by Monday morning, we could see around 1-3 inches at the base, 2-5 inches near mid-mountain, and 3-6 inches up top.
Monday – Tuesday Weather:
Partly sunny on both days with some clouds around from the departing and approaching storms. Highs in the 30s for Monday and warming into the 40s for the lower elevations on Tuesday.
Wednesday – Thursday Rain & Snow Showers:
We have another weak system moving through CA Wednesday into Thursday. We could see snow showers both days as the low spins over the region possibly keeping scattered snow showers around into Thursday. Highs drop back down into the 30s.
The trends on some models are back to our south with very little precipitation for the Tahoe basin. However, the model average is still similar to the Sunday system. The snow levels could rise up to around 6500-7000 ft. on Wednesday before dropping back below the base Wednesday night.
I don’t want to make a detailed snowfall forecast yet because of the trend back south, which could lower the forecast over the next few days. Right now the model average would bring similar snowfall totals as the Sunday system, but stretched over two days.
Friday – Next Weekend:
High pressure is still forecast to build in over CA starting Friday into next weekend. That will bring us sunny days with highs into the 40s on Friday, and then warming into the 50s for the lower elevations for the weekend.
Bigger Storms?
The long-range models continue to show a large trough digging into the West Coast on the 10th. The trend today is for high pressure in the eastern Pacific to stay farther off the coast through the 15th, with a reinforcing trough keeping the storm door open for the week of the 10th.
The latest operational model runs still show a larger/stronger/wetter storm around the 10th – 11th and now they show a 2nd storm right behind that around the 12th – 14th. Let’s hope the trends continue!
Long-Range Forecast:
There could be another smaller storm right behind those for the weekend of the 15th-16th. As we go through the week of the 17th, the longer range models keep troughing back over the West, but shifting north with high pressure possibly building in over the southwest.
That could bump the storm track to the north into the Pacific NW with only weaker systems or the southern edge tracking into northern CA. They are showing a dier pattern starting to emerge. That is not unexpected as the jet stream starts to weaken and shift north as we go into spring.
BA
