Tuesday Weather:
We are starting the day with some inversions that set up overnight. As of 6 AM, the temperatures were 17 degrees at the base and 40 degrees up top. That happens under high pressure and a lack of wind, and typically leads to mild weather that day.
Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected, with some clouds encroaching from the south as the next system approaches the region. Highs into the 40s.
Wednesday – Friday Rain:
We are going to finish 2025 and start 2026 on a wet note. The latest model runs show some showers reaching the Tahoe Basin by late afternoon-evening, and then steadier rain moving in overnight into Thursday, and some showers possibly lingering into Friday.
The snow levels will be very high with this system. The latest model runs suggest that they could start around 9000-9500 ft. Wednesday evening, and only fall to around 8500-9000 ft. by Thursday morning, and may only briefly dip close to 8000-8500 ft. Thursday afternoon-evening before rising again Thursday night.
A few showers could be around with snow levels finally dropping to 8000 ft. by afternoon. But not expecting much precipitation during the day on Friday. With the high snow levels, we expect mostly all rain on the mountain, with a coating to an inch possible near 8000 ft., and 1-3 inches of wet snow near the peaks.
Friday Night – Saturday Night Snow:
The next storm will move in quickly Friday night, with heavy snow into at least Saturday morning, and then snow showers lingering into early Sunday morning. This 2nd system brings SW winds with gusts up to 60-70+ mph over the ridges Friday into Saturday. That is much better for mountain orography and heavier precipitation rates.
The snow levels start around 7500-8000 ft. Friday evening at the start, but are forecast to fall quickly to around 5000-5500 ft. by Saturday morning, and then to hover there through Saturday night. That is 500-1000 ft. below the base, meaning this storm will bring mostly snow to the mountain after a start as rain for the lower elevations.
By early Saturday morning, we may only have up to a few inches on the lower mountain and several on the upper mountain. Then the snow piles up on Saturday with snow showers through Saturday night. By Sunday morning, we could see totals of around 7-12 inches near the base, 13-18 inches near mid-mountain, and 17-23 inches up top.
Sunday Weather:
Sunday could see some lingering snow showers along with colder temperatures. Highs drop into the 30s for the lower elevations over the weekend and 20s for the upper mountain. The winds drop a bit by Saturday afternoon into Sunday, but are still gusty over the ridges with the next storm approaching.
Another Storm Possible:
The next storm could move in as early as Sunday night or Monday, with some models lingering it into Tuesday. The snow levels are expected to stay pretty low next week. We’ll continue to track this next storm with more details over the next few days.
Long-Range Outlook:
The latest long-range model runs show the trough hanging around the West Coast through about the 8th-9th of January. Even if the ridge starts to build up near Alaska, storms could still track underneath into CA.
The latest operational model runs show another storm or two possible through the 8th-9th. The ensemble mean models show an active pattern for CA, even if we don’t see big storms. The OpenSnow Total Forecast Snowfall map looks promising over the next 10 days.
The longer-range models continue to show high pressure building over the West Coast beyond the 9th through mid-month. That could block storms with a drier pattern developing. Some models suggest the center of the highest pressure with the ridge is far enough north that storms could cut under the ridge into CA, but we’ll have to watch the trends on that as we get closer.
BA
