Monday
Highs in the 40s for Monday with increasing clouds and winds. Ridgetop gusts from the southwest up to 30+ mph to start the day and increasing up to 50-60+ mph during the afternoon, which could affect some upper mountain lift operations.
Monday Night – Tuesday Night Storm
The first storm is expected to move in with a few scattered rain showers possible as early as Monday evening. Then heavy rain moves in after 9-10 PM into Tuesday morning. Snow levels could jump up to 8,000 ft. overnight with top to bottom rain on the mountain. Then they lower to around 7000-7500 ft. by early Tuesday morning.
For Tuesday, temperatures will be in the 30s, and ridgetop winds will be gusting in excess of 100+ mph over the ridges. Those winds should close down quite a few ski lifts. The tricky part of the forecast will be how fast the snow levels fall with the cold front through the day on Tuesday as the heaviest precipitation shifts south of the area by the end of the day.
Snow levels could drop fairly quickly down to around 6500-7000 ft. by late morning, 6000-6500 ft. during the afternoon. The village is close to 6000 ft. That means rain turning to snow from top to bottom through the day on Tuesday and down near the village by evening. 1-2 feet of heavy wet snow could fall on the mountain by evening with only a few inches to the base if we turn to snow by late afternoon.
Tuesday night snow levels fall below 5000 ft. as we transition to lighter snow showers that become more scattered by Wednesday morning. A few to several inches of drier snow is expected Tuesday night.
It’s very hard to forecast total snowfall with the rain, but looking at the model average for snow levels & precip, we could see in total by Wednesday morning:
- 4-11 inches at the base & lower mountain
- 11-21 inches at mid-mountain
- 21-27 inches on the upper mountain
Our forecast page shows the snowfall forecast for mid-mountain which is affected by the snow levels with this storm.
Wednesday – Wednesday Night
We have a storm departing Wednesday with some scattered snow showers possible. We could see partly sunny skies and high into the 30s at the base and 20s up top. Lighter winds with ridgetop gusts only up to 30+ mph are expected.
Wednesday should be a fairly decent ski day but the fresh snow on the upper mountain could be pretty thick under the drier snow on top.
Thursday Storm
After the break on Wednesday, the next 3 systems move in back to back Thursday through Saturday with no break expected in between. Another wild weather pattern is expected with rain & snow, fluctuating snow levels, and gusty winds.
Thursday the next system moving in is colder and weaker and snow levels stay below the base. We should see light snow throughout the day. Ridgetop winds could increase to 50-60+ mph Thursday which could affect some upper mountain lifts. Highs in the 30s at the base and 20s up top.
Snow showers continue into Thursday night. Snow levels stay below the base. By Friday morning we could see an additional 6-10 inches of snow on the mountain.
Friday – New Year’s Eve Storms
The next storm moves in Friday and is a bit wetter and warmer than the Thursday system. We should see steady precipitation with snow levels rising to 6500-7000 ft. by late morning and to around 7300-7800 ft. by late afternoon That means snow turning to rain on the lower mountain again. Highs in the 30s. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 90+ mph up top Friday which could close several ski lifts again.
The next storm could be even wetter as it moves in Friday night into New Year’s Eve. We should see heavy rain & snow into Saturday morning with snow levels around 7100-7600 ft. Then snow levels fall to around 7000-7500 ft. by late morning and drop a bit faster during the afternoon to 5000-5500 ft. (below the base) by late afternoon.
The storm winds down Saturday evening and the storm could be lighter or winding down by the time any New Year’s Eve festivities are going on. Most of the storm is expected to be rain at the base with a few to several inches possible at the end Saturday afternoon/evening. The winds should come down some for Saturday through the day as the storm shifts south and colder air works in.
Snow totals for this storm could be:
- 4-18 inches of additional snowfall from the base up to mid-mountain
- 18-24 inches at mid-mountain
- 24-52 inches on the upper mountain
There will be a dramatic increase in snowfall amounts on the upper mountain as you go up above 8000 ft. where we should mainly see all snow.
Long-Range
There is still good agreement among the forecast models that we will see a break between storms and a fairly nice ski day on New Year’s Day. Partly-mostly sunny skies are expected with highs into the 30s. That could also be the window to drive home as another strong storm could move in later Sunday night into Monday the 2nd.
The active pattern could continue through the first week of January with the next storm expected for Monday the 2nd into Tuesday the 3rd, and another strong storm possible by the 4th-5th. You’ll want to stay tuned to the forecast as we iron out the details on the timing for each storm.
BA
