Final Days of Mild Weather:
Mostly sunny and mild days continue into Wednesday, with highs near 60 degrees at lake level, 50s for the lower – mid mountain areas, and 40s for the higher elevations.
Winter Pattern in Spring:
After a frustrating winter with only two stormy weather pattern periods from the end of November through March, we look to finally have a pattern coming that we could have used a lot more this season. By the 9th, the forecast models continue to show troughing over the West Coast, which could last more than not through at least the 20th of April.
The difference will be that it’s not the middle of winter with a strong jet stream and colder air available, which would likely bring us lots of snow in a pattern like the one forecast starting Thursday. We have weak cut-off/closed lows that are moving through slowly and will get a boost in showers from daytime heating. But overall, above-average precipitation for this time of year is forecast.
Temperatures:
We could see high temperatures max out in the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the upper mountain through the period. Colder when it’s precipitating and a bit warmer during times of sun.
Storms:
The latest model runs show a slow-moving low-pressure system bringing in showers by Thursday and continuing into the weekend, with another system bringing in more moisture and precipitation over the weekend.
We could see a break early next week before more storms are forecast to move through northern CA as troughing continues, with no signs of high pressure building in to block storms and to bring us back to a drier and milder pattern.
Total Precipitation Potential:
It will be hard to forecast total precipitation amounts with each system as they are slow-moving and not being steered by a fast-moving jet stream. But the latest model runs continue to show inches of precipitation possible, and our OpenSnow Total Precipitation forecast map continues to show up to 2-3 inches of precipitation falling near the crest over the 12-day period.
Snow Levels:
Snow levels will be a pain to forecast as well. Cold air at the center of the low could drop snow levels lower than forecast if they move directly over us. The current snow level forecasts show snow levels above 8000 ft. to start on Thursday into Friday, and then dropping closer to 7000 ft. on Saturday, and maybe as low as the base by Sunday.
If storms return later next week, snow levels could start up near 7000 ft. again, and then drop close to the base as we go farther out. These could change with each storm, but it shows that we could see fluctuating snow levels through the period, with rain at times for the base and the lower mountain, and even some wet snow at times.
Potential Snowfall:
Looking at the current 7000 ft. snowfall forecasts on OpenSnow for Palisades over the next two weeks, we see that around 10 inches of snow is forecasted to fall by the 20th, as there will be rain at times.
Jumping up to 8000 ft., the current forecasts show up to 20 inches of snow over the 12-day period, with some rain mixing in at times, especially this week.
Then jumping up to the top of Granite Chief near 8,800 ft., the forecasts are showing around 30 inches of snow by the 20th.
I think that gives us a good snapshot of what could happen. Mostly rain with some wet snow at times near the base that could bring coatings of snow that melts, and then amounts jumping by 10 inches or so for every 1000 ft. you go up in elevation.
Of course, this is using a bunch of averages and storms that are hard to forecast, especially the potentially colder ones beyond 5 days. All that we know for now is that we look to be heading into a colder and unsettled pattern for a while, starting later this week, with rain and high elevation snow showers likely for Thursday into the weekend.
I’ll continue to watch the trends closely, with more detailed snowfall forecasts if the colder storms over the weekend and next week look likely as we get closer.
BA
