Snowfall Report:
A final inch of wet snow fell on top of the mountain on Sunday bringing the total for the first half of the storm to 14 inches up, and just rain at the base.
Monday Lull:
We have clouds and gusty winds for Monday with the AR well to our north. A few scattered showers are possible, but overall a drier day. Highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees down near the base. Ridgetop winds increasing into the afternoon with gusts up to 80-100+ mph again by evening as the AR & jet stream shift south again.
Monday Night – Tuesday Night Storm:
As the moisture feed shifts south Monday night we will see increasing rain & snow again. The snow levels may drop as colder air moves south as well. They could start out around 7000-7500 ft. but the models suggest they dip near the base by early Tuesday morning.
Then we will see a final surge of heavier precipitation Tuesday afternoon into the evening as the low that has been sitting well off the coast, which helped to draw up the warm subtropical moisture for this storm starting back on Friday, will finally move inland. That could cause snow levels to rise again, up to around 6800-7800 ft. by midday Tuesday into the evening.
Strong winds again for Tuesday with ridgetop gusts up to 80-100+ mph again and highs in the 30s. The storms should clear out Wednesday morning with snow showers winding down. Snow levels crash below the base by the end early Wednesday morning.
We could see some snow at the base Monday night that turns to rain Tuesday into Tuesday evening before turning back to snow at the end, which cuts in the forecast. Half of the base level amounts could fall Monday night if snow levels drop and then is rained on Tuesday before the other half could fall Tuesday night. So the forecasted amounts may not be measured on the ground.
By Wednesday morning we could see additional snowfall amounts of around 7-12 inches at the base, 21-27 inches near mid-mountain, and 32-40 inches up top.
Wednesday Weather:
As the storm clears on Wednesday, we could see some sun as the skies clear some between storms. Highs in the 30s. The winds will drop some through the day, maybe down to 40-60+ mph over the exposed ridges by the end of the day, so you may finally be able to access mountaintop terrain that was closed since Friday due to strong winds.
Thursday Storm:
That doesn’t last long as the winds increase again on Thursday as the next storm moves in. The precipitation could arrive by mid-morning with heavy preciptiation by afternoon into Thursday evening. Then snow showers into early Friday morning and ending Friday morning.
The snow levels could start out around 5000-6000 ft. Thursday morning but rise as some warmer air moves in with the system from off of the Pacific, up to around 6300-7300 ft. by Thursday evening. Then plummeting below 3000 ft. behind the front by early Friday morning as the cold air that’s been stuck to our north all week finally spills south.
We should see mostly all snow above 7000 ft. with this storm, which would make it the coldest storm of the week. For the base, we could see rain mix in by Thursday afternoon into the evening before changing back to snow Thursday night. That could affect the totals measured on the ground again.
By Friday morning an additional 9-14 inches is possible near the base, 17-23 inches near mid-mountain, and 21-27 inches up top.
Drier for the Weekend:
High pressure builds in closer to the coast and should block storms with a drier pattern for the upcoming weekend. The sun eventually comes out on Friday with sunny skies expected for Saturday and Sunday. The winds finally drop off, but it stays cold with highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s fo the higher elevations.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models show the cold trough over the West into the week of the 10th keeping the cold air around. But high pressure near the West Coast may block storms bringing us a drier pattern through at least the 12th.
By mid-month, the trend is toward high pressure shifting east a bit and sitting near or over the West Coast. With the strong ridge gone from the northeast Pacific, we may see the storm track return to the Pacific NW with northern CA on the southern edge into the 3rd week of February. Some of these storms could dig far enough south to bring in some precipitation.
As we go through the 3rd week of February the high-pressure ridge over the West Coast could shift off the coast, and the trough could dig farther west again towards the West Coast. That may open the door to wetter storms digging farther south again later in the month.
BA