Saturday Showers:
Rain showers for Saturday. Highs into the 30s for the upper mountain and 40s down near the base. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 50-70+ mph could affect some exposed upper mountain lift operations.
Snow levels will continue to rise, likely up around 8500-9500 ft. by afternoon and as high as 9000-10,000 ft. Saturday night before they start to fall.
Sunday Rain to Snow:
Sunday will be a storm day with strong winds and a period of heavy precipitation as the front moves through during the day. Highs in the 30s with colder temperatures by the end of the day. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 80-100+ mph will likely close quite a few ski lifts.
The latest model runs show precipitation pushing into the Tahoe basin between 7-10 AM and ending before 10 PM Sunday night, so a fast-moving storm that will limit totals.
The snow levels still look to be slow to fall to the base. They fall pretty quickly down to around 7000-7500 ft. at the start Sunday morning but then could sit in the 6200-6700 ft. range during the heaviest precipitation in the middle of the day, and then falling to around 5700-6200 during the afternoon with snow down to the base
Any leftover showers Sunday evening will be light with snow levels falling to 5000 ft. Most of the snow falls during the day on Sunday. By Sunday night we could snowfall totals of around 1-4 inches at the base, 5-9 inches near mid-mountain, and 7-12 inches up top.
Monday – Thursday:
We will see a drier pattern for Monday through Thursday with mostly sunny skies each day and lighter winds. High temperatures only into the 30s through Tuesday, and then 40s for the lower elevations on Wednesday and Thursday.
Friday – Saturday:
I have been mentioning that some forecast model runs hinting at a weak system trying to sneak in around the 3rd – 4th. Some are still showing a chance this morning. We will have to see if this storm will be able to dig as far south as some of the models are showing, or if the high-pressure ridge over the southwest will be more amplified and will keep this system to our north.
Long-Range Forecast:
Behind that system, the long-range models continue to show high pressure amplifying over the West Coast into the 2nd week of January. This pattern will likely drive a lot of cold into the eastern U.S. and it may be newsworthy cold. We may get stuck in a drier pattern through at least the 10th-11th, possibly longer.
We will have to continue to watch for signs of when this pattern will break down. Some of the long-range models continue to try and push a large trough into the northeast Pacific which eventually tries to push the active storm track back into the Pacific NW and maybe northern CA. Meanwhile, we’ll watch for any storms that could sneak into northern CA.
BA
