Wet Weekend:
Showers from the first system should push in around midday on Saturday. The amounts for Saturday look pretty light. Highs will stay in the 40s for the lower elevations near the base and 30s for the upper mountain. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 80-100+ mph over exposed peaks, which should close quite a few upper mountain ski lifts.
The showers will continue through Sunday night. Overall light amounts are expected each day and into Sunday night. The difference for Sunday will be that the winds won’t be as strong, only gusting up to 30-50+ mph over the ridges. The latest model runs show a steadier period of precipitation later Saturday night into early Sunday morning.
Snow levels should fluctuate between 8000-9000 ft. through the weekend. The one time point they may dip lower is Sunday morning when they could dip below 7500 ft. under any heavier showers. Overall we expect mainly rain below 8000 ft. with maybe some wet snow mixing in above 7000 ft.
For snowfall, we could see up to 1-5 inches of wet snow accumulate up top above 7500-8000 ft. over the weekend.
Monday Weather:
Monday we will be between storms with the last weekend system moving away Monday morning and the Tuesday storm approaching. We will see some clouds but I think we could clear enough to see a little sun as well. Highs in the 40s. Ridgetop winds should be lighter for a day.
Christmas Eve Storm:
We could see rain and snow push in between 7-10 AM on Tuesday with strong winds gusting up to 30-50+ mph. Heavy snow is possible during the day with falling snow levels. Highs in the 30s. Tuesday evening we could see a few lingering snow showers behind the front, then clearing later Tuesday night.
Snow levels start high as the storm starts to move in but fall fast. They could be up around 8000 ft. as precipitation reaches the mountain Tuesday morning but fall to the base by late morning. Then below 5000 ft. by the end Tuesday evening. That means we could see some rain at the base Tuesday morning before a change to snow for the rest of the storm.
We could see snowfall totals by Tuesday night of around 3-7 inches at the base, 5-10 inches near mid-mountain, and 8-13 inches up top.
Christmas Day:
Wednesday should be a nice day with the sun coming out and cold temperatures, along with lighter winds. Highs in the 30s and rising above freezing for the lower elevations by afternoon. So get on the snow early if you want a shot at a little Christmas morning powder.
Active Pattern Continues:
No changes to the thinking for the pattern that sets up from around the 26th through the 29th. A trough in the northeast Pacific will be close to northern CA on the southeastern edge with the southern edge of the storms reaching the northern Sierra.
The first storm is expected to move in on Thursday and will be within the 5-day window for a detailed snowfall forecast starting Sunday morning. The trend for this storm is a little colder and we could see some snow for the lower elevations with several inches of snow for the mountains.
We could continue to catch the southern edge of storms every day through the 29th. Looking at the freezing level forecasts this morning for that time period the storms do look a little milder again. We’ll continue to watch the trends as each system gets closer. Overall we will be on the edge of the wet pattern to the north for about 4 days.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show high-pressure building in near the West Coast by the end of the month, and into the first week of January. That is expected to shut off the active storm track into the Pacific NW with a drier pattern for the West Coast.
We’ll continue to watch the trends for January. The good news is that we will be adding to the snowfall and snowpack over the next week before the drier pattern emerges.
BA
