The Week Ahead:
As we’ve gotten closer to long-range model forecasts for a pattern change toward snow returning the trend has been drier. We will still see a brief shift in the pattern on Monday, but only enough for a shot of colder air with highs dipping into the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations, along with gusty northeast winds.
Then the high-pressure ridge wants to build right back in over the West Coast by Tuesday through the end of the week (Friday). That will warm highs back into the 40s, and we will stay in a dry pattern through the end of the week.
The Last Week of January:
Next weekend, the 25th-26th, the mean ridge position is forecast to try and shift off the coast again up into the northeast Pacific, But it’s now forecast to be much closer to the coast instead of shifting farther NW toward the Aleutian Islands.
That has the trough digging West into CA, but not a broad trough to the coast up into Canada as previous forecasts had been suggesting. The latest trends suggest that we may only see a brief shift in the pattern next weekend with colder air digging south into the West and the Sierra.
Some model runs suggest light snow is possible with the cold front from the north over the weekend, but most model runs now show a dry front. With the trough not digging as far off the coast, they lost any storms they were showing tracking south closer to the coast and possibly tapping a little Pacific moisture.
Long-Range Forecast:
The latest long-range model runs show high pressure possibly building right back in over CA by Tuesday the 28th instead of the trough sticking around keeping the storm door open as the long-range models had been suggesting for the last week of January.
They continue to try and open the door to storms beyond two weeks during the first week of February, but that hasn’t been working out as they showed the same 2+ weeks out for the last two weeks of January. Changing Pacific Ocean patterns are likely helping to fight any regional weather pattern changes right now.
We’ll continue to watch the trends and will let you know as soon as we have any confidence in storms returning.
BA