Thursday – Friday:
We have mostly sunny skies Thursday morning with some high clouds. We could see some clouds around through Friday with partly sunny skies as the trough off the coast splits and the cut-off low forms and drops south off the coast. Highs into the 30s for both days. The winds look to be on the lighter side with some ridgetop gusts from the southwest up to 30+ mph Thursday.
The Holiday Weekend:
Saturday through Monday we will have really nice weather for the 3-day President’s Weekend as a strong high-pressure ridge is set up near the West Coast. We should see mostly sunny skies all 3 days with highs into the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the higher elevations.
Tuesday – Wednesday Cold Front:
By Tuesday the cold trough is digging south towards our region. We may start the day with partly-mostly sunny skies and hit 40 degrees for a high at the base. But then we could see increasing clouds and winds through the afternoon as the cold front approaches. We could see some upper mountain lift closures by the end of the day from strong winds.
Some of the latest model runs show snow arriving as early as late afternoon Tuesday and the rest show snow moving in Tuesday evening. We will likely see a round of heavier snow with the cold front Tuesday night. The cold trough is established over the region by Wednesday with snow showers likely continuing and highs only in the 20s.
Long-Range:
Behind the front Tuesday night into Wednesday, the latest model runs continue to agree that a slow-moving low-pressure center drops down the West Coast through Saturday the 26th. That could continue to stream moisture into the cold air over the Sierra from Tuesday night through Saturday the 26th. The models aren’t showing only deep moisture feeds off of the Pacific or any atmospheric rivers. Just steady light-moderate snowfall over a prolonged period.
That could drop 6-12+ inches of snow on the mountain each day over the 4-days. Not 2-4 feet in a day, but over 4 days if the latest forecast for 2-3 inches of total precipitation doesn’t change. It’s still very early to forecast any snowfall. We’ll be within 5-7 days of the storm by Saturday, and that’s when I’ll start to calculate the detailed snowfall forecasts for the storm.
We could see several more storms move through from Monday the 27th through at least March 3rd if the trough remains over the West Coast. There are some signs that the trough could start to lift out of the region beyond the 3rd, but we could see quite a bit of new snow by then.
BA
