Tuesday – Thursday Weather:
We will see mostly sunny skies on Tuesday with highs in the 30s. The active storm track continues into the Pacific NW into the weekend, and being on the southern edge we will likely see some clouds Wednesday into Thursday.
We could see some gusty winds on Wednesday as a storm moves through to our north. Ridgetop winds from the southwest could gust up to 40-60+ mph. The lower wind speeds for Thursday. Highs in the 30s on the mountains and 40s for the lower elevations near the base.
We could also see a stray shower or two. The best chance may be Wednesday night. But overall the models show little if any precipitation reaching this far south until Friday, as we continue to stay in this pattern of being on the southern edge of the storm track as we start the new year, the same pattern we’ve seen for most of December.
Friday Storm:
The latest model runs are slowing this system with arrival now between Friday afternoon and evening, with showers possibly lingering into Saturday morning before clearing completely. Most of the forecast models now show precipitation reaching the Tahoe basin but amounts fade to the south as we have seen with most storms this month.
We will see increasing clouds and winds during the day on Friday with ridgetop gusts up to 80-100+ mph by afternoon, which will likely close a lot of upper mountain ski lifts. Highs in the 30s for the higher elevations and 40s for the lower elevations ahead of the precipitation.
The snow levels will be tricky to forecast as they start high and fall with the front Friday night. This storm looks to have colder air that moves in faster than the last storm on Sunday. Snow levels could start up around 7500-8000 ft. Friday afternoon but fall to the base pretty quickly Friday evening.
We will have to fine-tune the snow levels and snowfall forecasts over the next few days as the snow level forecasts become clearer. As of Tuesday morning, it looks like we could see snowfall totals by Saturday morning of around 1-3 inches at the base, 2-4 inches near mid-mountain, and 3-7 inches up top.
Weekend Weather:
The storms clears out by Saturday afternoon with the sun coming out and lighter winds. Highs in the 30s. Mostly sunny for Sunday with temperatures starting to warm a little as high pressure builds over the region. Highs in the 30s for the higher elevations and 40s for the lower elevations near the base.
Long-Range Forecast:
High pressure will amplify up the West Coast next week likely blocking storms up the West Coast. We are expecting to go into a drier pattern or fully dry pattern starting this weekend into the second week of January as we get stuck in this pattern. We should see a lot of sunny days with highs in the 30s and 40s.
The long-range models continue to show us stuck in the same pattern up until mid-month. That could be 10 days of very dry weather through the 15th.
Looking at some of the extended range models they suggest the pattern starts to change during the third week of January into the last week, with a more active pattern possible for the West Coast. We’ll continue to watch the trends…
BA
