Snowfall Report:
The upper mountain picked up 2-4 inches of wet snow Saturday before a change to rain. That brings the upper mountain total to 13 inches so far with this storm.
Sunday Scenario:
We have a lull in the heavy precipitation Sunday morning as the AR lifted north overnight. We have some showers over the mountains near Tahoe. The latest model runs show the moisture plume shifting south again during the day on Sunday with Tahoe right on the southern edge of the heavier preciptiation.
The snow levels could hover in the 8500-9500 ft. range for most of the day with 3-6 of wet snow possible above the snow line. The strong winds continue with gusts up to 90-110+ mph over the ridges. Highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees down at the base.
Monday – Tuesday Storm:
The AR is forecast to shift a bit north again on Monday with a lull through at least the morning hours with the strong ridgetop winds continuing. There is a disagreement among the models for how fast the heaviest precipitation shifts back south. Some show a return by Monday afternoon and others Monday night. Then continuing through Tuesday night.
The strong winds continue with ridgetop gusts up to 70-90+ mph likely continuing to affect upper mountain lift operations. Highs in the 30s. Snow levels are up around 8000-9000 ft. during the lull Monday morning.
Then they could drop as low as 6500-7000 ft. Monday afternoon as the steadier precipitation starts to push back in. Then rising up to around 6500-7500 ft. Monday night into Tuesday morning, and maybe up to 7000-8000 ft. Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night before dropping about 500 ft. by early Wednesday.
We could see all rain down at the base through Tuesday night. But with this round of precipitation, we could see all snow above 8000 ft. with a mix between 6500-7500 ft. But we could still see some significant accumulations above 7000 ft. if the snow levels stay on the lower side. In total by Wednesday morning, we could see around 20-26 inches near mid-mountain and 31-38 inches up top.
Wednesday Weather:
There could be some showers around for Wednesday but we are going to see a break between storms. We will likely continue to see gusty winds with ridgetop gusts up to 60-80+ mph from the southwest and highs in the 30s.
Colder Storm Thursday – Friday:
The next storm moves in by Thursday morning with heavy precipitation expected during the day into Thursday evening. The precipitation rates should drop some Thursday night as the heaviest precipitation shifts south. Then snow showers linger into Friday and become more scattered. Highs drop into the 20s for the upper mountain.
The strong winds continue Thursday but should finally drop Friday! The snow levels start out higher on Thursday, up around 6500-7500 ft. during the day, and then drop. They could be as low as 3000-4000 ft. by early Friday morning. The should reach the base by Thursday evening. By Friday evening we could see an additional 5-10 inches at the base, 18-24 inches near mid-mountain, and 22-28 inches up top.
Drier Next Weekend:
We are expecting drier weather for next weekend as high pressure builds in closer to the West Coast, and that could continue into the beginning of the following week. It should stay cold with highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations, along with mostly sunny skies.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models have been trending towards the western trough shifting east by mid-month into the 3rd week of February, with high pressure over the southwest. This pattern could bring the storm track off of the Pacific into the Pacific NW over the ridge over CA. But storms could dig farther south into northern CA at times.
It’s not the cold trough pattern they were showing the last couple of days. We could see more of a milder storm pattern with Tahoe on the southern edge of the storm track if this trend continues. Either way, I don’t think we will see a prolonged dry pattern again.
BA