Drier Week Ahead:
We are still expecting a backdoor cold front on Wednesday that will drop high temperatures into the 30s to near 40 degrees for the lower elevations near the base. The rest of the week we expect highs near 50 degrees for the lower elevations, 40s for the lower mountain, and 30s for the highest elevations, along with mostly sunny skies each day.
A high-pressure ridge will be over the West Coast through at least Saturday keeping any storms away from the region. A trough up in the Gulf of Alaska will push southeast towards the West Coast by Sunday into next week, but right now it looks like if we see any precipitation it won’t be until at least Sunday night.
Overnight lows this week should be down into the 20s up to 8k’, so we should be able to make snow most nights.
Next Possible Storm:
No real change to the long-range forecast as the forecast models disagree on how far south the trough digs into the West by next Monday the 11th and how long it sticks around.
Some models are shallower than others with the trough and only have a few showers reaching as far south as the Tahoe basin next Monday. Other models dig the trough farther south which would allow the next storm to dig farther south bringing heavier precipitation into the northern Sierra.
We will be watching this storm all week to see if it trends wetter or drier, and we will be looking closely at potential snowfall amounts later this week.
Long-Range Forecast:
The GFS model looks to be the outlier in holding the trough over the West through next week with another storm possible by the end of the week, and more storms into the 3rd week of November. The other long-range models seem to be leaning towards the idea of high pressure returning by the middle of next week, and then maybe a weaker trough centered farther east emerging around the 16th.
Either way, the pattern emerging going into the 3rd week of November could be more active. We’ll continue to watch the trends. The GFS model wants it to be game on starting a week from today (Monday). We may get some snow next Monday, but I’m not quite ready to call for game on, especially since it is so early in the season.
BA
