Snowfall Report:
We picked up a dusting of snow at the base on Wednesday and 2 inches up top from the snow showers that moved through, exactly what we were expecting from the weak system.
Thursday – Saturday:
We have high-pressure building in as we head into the last weekend of the month. That will bring mostly sunny days through at least Saturday with highs warming into the 40s Thursday and Friday and then 50s for the lower elevations for the weekend.
Sunday – Monday:
Sunday into Monday the ridge shifts east a bit with the trough and active pattern to our north into the Pacific NW. We could see some clouds, especially on Sunday and Monday, as the storms track just to our north. Thursday morning about half of the models now show them tracking far enough south for a few rain showers to reach the Tahoe basin on both days.
The snow levels will most likely be above 9000 ft. throughout the period, so if any showers reach us they should just be rain showers. We could see some gusty winds over the ridges both days with gusts up to 30-50+ mph. Marginal for affecting upper mountain lift operations.
Tuesday – Friday (last day of February):
Mostly sunny skies should return by Tuesday with highs warming into the 50s for the lower elevations and 40s for the higher elevations through the end of the month. Some models still show a cut-off low meandering off the coast of SoCal around the end of the month, so we’ll continue to keep an eye on that.
Dry to Start March:
A high-pressure ridge is forecast to build farther up the coast by the end of the month, on its way to eventually shifting towards Alaska during the 1st week of March. That should continue our dry pattern into at least the first couple of days of March and drier up the West Coast.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models show the mean ridge position up near Alaska by the 3rd through at least the 8th of March. That will help to drive some colder air back into the West. It could also open us up to some weak storms returning. The ensemble mean models show precipitation increasing a bit during this period.
We’ll be keeping an eye on this period to see if some colder air and a little snow could return. We are also keeping an eye on the 2nd week of March to see if we stay in this weak system pattern, or if the pattern could open us up to wetter storms as some of the longer-range models have been suggesting.
BA
