Sunday – Wednesday Weather:
The weather for Sunday through at least Tuesday will be nice but chilly with sunny days with highs in the 30s.
Most of the forecast models are dry for Wednesday as a small system dives into SoCal ahead of the bigger storm, but a few models try to bring us some clouds or even a few snow showers, so we’ll keep an eye on that.
Thursday – Friday Storm:
The next storm is forecast to push in around 5-8 AM on Thursday with heavy snow into Thursday afternoon along with strong winds gusting up to 60-80+ mph from the SW over the ridges. This is a wet storm pulling in lots of Pacific moisture, but the moisture feed is aimed to our south putting us on the slightly drier but colder side finally.
Cold air should also help with firing up decent post-frontal snow showers as the moist air flows up and over the mountains. We could see snow showers last through the day on Friday before ending Friday night, along with the winds dropping making for a fun day on Friday.
The snow levels could start around 4000-5000 ft. Thursday morning and then rise up to around 5500-6500 ft. (near the base) Thursday afternoon. But the heavier precipitation could have snow levels peaking below the base before falling below 5000 ft. Thursday night through Friday.
Snow:liquid ratios could average around 11-15:1 between 7000-8500 ft. on the upper mountain. Using the model average for precipitation and snow levels, we could see around 24-31 inches near the base by Friday night, 31-38 inches near mid-mountain, and 37-45 inches up top. We’ll continue to watch the trends closely.
Drier Pattern:
The long-range models continue to show high-pressure building in over CA next weekend bumping the storm track to our north, and bringing us a nice weekend with sunny days.
Most models keep the storm track to our north into the week of the 17th, but they have been trending a storm moving through on Monday the 17th farther south. Some models are now far enough south to bring us precipitation. We’ll continue to watch the trends.
The storm track is forecast to stay mainly to our north into the Pacific NW through the end of the week. By the last weekend of the month, the long-range models show high pressure amplifying a bit farther north, which could mean even less of a chance for storms to reach northern CA.
BA
