Monday – Tuesday Sun:
The sunny days continue through Tuesday with highs in the 30s.
Wednesday Weather:
The weather is a little questionable for Wednesday. Most of the models have the 1st and much smaller wave ahead of the big storm moving into SoCal to our south. Some forecasts are far enough north for a few snow showers to reach the mountain. As of right now, I’m just expecting some sun and clouds with highs in the 30s.
Thursday – Valentine’s Day Storm:
The latest model runs show snow pushing in near over the mountain around 2-5 AM. The winds and snowfall rates increase during the day with ridgetop gusts up to 70-90+ mph from the SW, likely closing upper mountain lifts. The heaviest snow is expected Thursday afternoon.
With the surge of heavy precipitation Thursday afternoon the forecast models suggest that snow levels could rise up to around 5600-6100 ft. That is very close to allowing a little rain to mix in near the base for a few hours. Then snow levels drop Thursday night as the center of low pressure moves inland continuing the steady snow showers.
The snow showers could continue to be pretty steady Friday morning as the cold moist air continues to flow up and over the mountains. The ridgetop winds could be gusting up to around 30-50+ mph. Highs in the 30s, with 20s above 8k’.
Final measurement early Saturday morning could be around 27-35 inches near the base, 36-44 inches around mid-mountain, and 41-50 inches up top. That includes a little rain mixing in near the base Thursday afternoon. ARound 75% of the snowfall could be on the ground by Friday morning. We’ll continue to fine-tune the forecast through Wednesday.
President’s Weekend:
High pressure is still forecast to build in over CA for the weekend bringing sunny days and lighter winds, with highs in the 30s for the upper mountain and breaking into the 40s down near the base.
President’s Day System:
The trends with the Monday system are farther north this morning. I think it will be hard to flatten the weekend ridge that wants to build up the West Coast next week. I’d expect sun clouds with a chance of a snow shower for the mountains. We’ll continue to watch the trends.
Drier Pattern:
By Tuesday through the end of next week, high pressure builds over the West Coast bringing us a drier pattern. We should see sunny days for most of next week with highs into the 40s.
Long-Range Forecast:
Going into the week of the 24th, the ridge is forecast to expand over most of the West. That could keep us dry through the end of the month.
Storms will be spinning up in that large trough in the northeast Pacific and trying to push into the back side of the ridge into the West Coast. They will weaken or fall apart as they do, but it is possible they make it far enough for a little precipitation to reach the northern Sierra, especially if the trough nudges a little closer.
We’ll continue to watch the trends to see when an active pattern could return…
BA
