Snowfall Report:
The snow returned Monday night with 6 inches of new snow on the upper mountain as of 5 AM Tuesday, and 2 inches at the base. The snow continues to fall Tuesday morning.
Tuesday – Tuesday Night Storm:
The snow continues Tuesday with a wave off the coast moving inland Tuesday afternoon into the evening with a surge of heavier preciptiation and warmer air. The latest model runs show the preciptiation diminishing pretty quickly behind the cold front after midnight.
Highs could break 40 degrees at the base Tuesday afternoon and highs in the 30s on the upper mountain. Ridgetop winds are gusting up to 60-80+ mph Tuesday morning and will increase to 80-100+ mph into the afternoon, likely closing some upper mountain lifts.
The snow levels are expected to rise during the day on Tuesday after starting the morning near the base, up to around 7300-7800 ft. by evening before falling below 6000 ft. by the end later Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. That means we should see some rain between 6000-7000 ft. including base level.
By Wednesday morning we could see additional snowfall accumulations of around 3-7 inches at the base, 9-14 inches near mid-mountain, and 17-23 inches up top.
Wednesday Weather:
The storm clears the region by morning. We will see mostly sunny skies and highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations. The ridgetop winds drop through the day, but could still be gusting up to 40-60+ mph over exposed ridges.
Thursday – Friday Storm:
We could see snow showers return by mid-morning on Thursday. Then steadier snow for Thursday afternoon and heavier snow Thursday night, and then snow showers into Friday morning before ending by afternoon. Highs in the 30s for Thursday. Strong ridgetop winds again with gusts up to 50-70+ mph from the SW.
The snow levels start out near to just below the base during the day on Thursday, but could rise a bit to around 6000-6500 ft. (just above the base) Thursday evening with the surge of heavier preciptiation, but then below base again later Thursday night into Friday morning.
That means we could see all snow at the base or a little rain mixing in by Thursday evening. But likely all snow above 6500 ft. on most of the mountain terrain with this storm. By Friday afternoon we could see snowfall totals of around 12-17 inches at the base, 15-21 inches near mid-mountain, and 19-25 inches up top.
Friday could be the best day of skiing all week as the snow showers linger into the morning and clear into the afternoon, with a little sun. But it stays cold with highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations, and the winds finally drop off!
Drier Weekend Into Early Next Week:
The latest model runs still agree on high-pressure building in near the West Coast for the weekend into early next week. With the cold trough still hanging back over the West and CA the temperatures should stay cold with highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations with mostly sunny days, possibly through next Tuesday.
Long-Range Forecast:
For the next 5-day period of the 13th-17th, there is decent agreement that the western trough could expand farther west off of the West Coast. That could open the door to storms moving into the West Coast and far enough south to bring a decent storm or two to northern CA. The ensemble mean models show above average preciptiation possible during this period.
The western trough may become shallower and farther north and east, with high pressure building in over the southwest and near the West Coast of CA beyond the 17th. That may bump the storm track farther north into the Pacific NW with northern CA only catching the southern edge of the storms.
Overall no prolonged dry patterns looking likely right now. We have the chance to see more storms later next week into the 3rd week of February.
BA