Snowfall Report:
The preciptiation outran the cold air Tuesday night with snow levels not dropping back down to the base until the very end. That brought only a dusting of snow to the base. Up top, we saw an additional 18 inches of snow. That brings the 5-day storm totals to 38 inches up top while we only saw around 2-3 inches at the base with a lot of rain on top of that.
Wednesday Weather:
Mostly sunny skies with highs in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations. Ridgetop winds gusting up to 40-60+ mph over the exposed ridges.
Thursday – Friday Storm:
Snow showers should move in by mid-morning Thursday and increase into the afternoon. Heavier snow is expected later Thursday into Thursday night. Highs in the 30s for Thursday with ridgetop winds increasing to 50-70+ mph from the southwest.
The latest trend with the storm on this morning’s model runs is for the snow showers to linger a little longer on Friday, possibly into the afternoon before fully clearing out Friday night. Highs in the 30s for the lower elevations & 20s for the higher elevations with the winds dropping through the day.
The snow levels could start around 6000-6500 ft. Thursday morning, which is near the base, and then they could rise slightly to around 6800-7300 ft. by Thursday evening with the surge of heavier preciptiation from the warm low moving in off of the Pacific. Then dropping as colder air from the northern low moves south, below the base by early Friday morning.
By Friday night we could see totals of around 4-8 inches at the base, 13-18 inches near mid-mountain, and 16-22 inches up top.
Drier Pattern:
High pressure is still forecast to build in up and down the West Coast just off the coast for the weekend into Monday. The cold western trough is still close enough to keep temperatures cold. Highs continue to be in the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the higher elevations, along with lighter winds.
The pattern starts to shift on Tuesday with some clouds possible. Some models suggest a few showers could reach us as well, but most are still dry through Tuesday.
Active Pattern Returns:
By next Wednesday – Thursday the ensemble mean models show the western trough expanding off the West Coast opening the door to wetter storms. The next storm is forecast to move in on Wednesday into Thursday, and it could be a wet one for most of CA.
The gusty winds will return and we could see an active period into the weekend of the 16th-17th. The ensemble mean models show above-average preciptiation well south into CA during this period.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show high pressure building in near the West Coast of CA beyond the 17th, with a zonal pattern setting up to the north as the strong ridge over Alaska finally moves.
That could bring an active pattern to the Pacific NW and BC with northern CA on the southern edge of teh storm track. The ensemble mean models start to shift the wet pattern farther north as we get later into February.
Being on the southern edge of the storm track we could still get storms, and we could also see a generally drier pattern. We’ll continue to watch the trends.
BA