Snowfall Report:
Southerly flow did its dirty work overnight as we expected, and it prevented most of the moisture with the storm from pushing into the mountains. We were expecting 0-3 inches overnight from bottom to top and picked up only 0-1 inches.
Saturday:
The snow showers are still falling Saturday morning with snow levels near the base. The winds have dropped with temperatures in the 30s near the base and 20s for the upper mountain. We expect most of the snow showers Saturday morning and then diminishing from north to south through the day as the low moves south. Highs in the 30s.
So far we’ve picked up 0-1 inches of the 1-6 inches forecast for the storm. We could see 0-2 inches Saturday to get us into the low end of the forecast range by Saturday night.
Sunday – Tuesday:
New Year’s Eve looks fairly nice. Partly sunny skies are expected for Sunday – Tuesday with highs in the 30s, along with lighter winds.
Some models still try to bring a system dropping south off the coast close enough for some clouds and a few flakes for New Year’s Eve during the evening hours. It still looks pretty dry to me, so I wouldn’t expect more than a few ambiance flakes similar to Christmas Eve at best.
Wednesday Storm:
The latest model runs still show the next low-pressure system dropping south down the coast, similar to most of the storms we’ve seen recently that drop down the West Coast instead of moving west to east through the Sierra. We have some disagreement on how close the low will track.
We could see snow push in later Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then clearing out by Thursday. Highs into the 30s. The winds don’t look very strong with this system.
Snow levels could start above 7000 ft. but look to fall near the base on Wednesday. We could see similar snowfall amounts as the current storm, with 0-2 inches near the base and 1-5 inches on the mountain by Thursday morning.
Thursday – Friday:
We should clear out by Thursday, with partly-mostly sunny skies for both days and highs in the 30s.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models have been consistent for a while now in showing a cold trough digging into the West Coast around the 6th-7th. We could see a front move through sometime next Saturday with some gusty winds, colder air, and snow showers. Then we could see the center of the low-pressure system track through CA later Saturday into next Sunday the 7th.
We’ll continue to watch the trend on this system all week along with the Wednesday system. Snowfall may just be measured in inches with both, but hopefully, the 2nd system can tap a bit more moisture for a decent little dump of snow.
Extended Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show the trough continuing east and then settling over the Western/Central U.S. through the 2nd week of January, with the ridge building in the eastern Pacific near the West Coast.
In this pattern, we could be between the eastern edge of the ridge and the western edge of the trough. That could keep temperatures on the colder side for the first half of January. Unfortunately, this pattern would likely limit any storms to being from the north and moisture-starved if any. We are expecting a drier pattern for the 2nd week of January if this verifies.
Some of the long-range models start to hint at the pattern shifting a bit by mid-month into the 3rd week of January, with troughing near the West Coast again. That would bring a better pattern for storms to return. We’ll continue to watch the trends, but the way this season has been going, we’ll believe it when we see it.
BA
