Wednesday – Friday:
Mostly sunny with highs in the 50s and 60s through Thursday. A slight cooldown Friday with some clouds and winds starting to pick up as the storm track returns to the Pacific NW Thursday into Friday.
The storms initially are to our north through Friday. Then by Saturday into Sunday the forecast models still show the trough digging farther south into CA with the storms getting closer. The jet stream is forecast to be over northern CA for the weekend, so we are expecting gusty southwest winds, with ridgetop gusts up to 80+ mph at times.
The models are still split on how far south a weakening AR (atmospheric river) of moisture will sag over the weekend and how much rain will reach the northern Sierra. Some forecast models keep us fairly dry with only a few scattered showers at best. Other models have the moisture reaching just a bit farther south, and with the wet storm, a bit farther south can mean some heavier rain is possible.
The snow levels are expected to be above 8500-9000 ft. for most of this period, so the question is how much rain we could see through Sunday. We should at least see some clouds, gusty winds, and cooler temperatures in the 40s. Then maybe some showers or bands of heavier rain. We’ll continue to watch the trends.
Sunday Night – Tuesday Storms:
The trough is forecast to stay over the Pacific NW with storms continuing through Tuesday. The latest model runs suggest that the storm track is a bit farther south with each storm. That could give us a better chance of seeing some precipitation Sunday night into Monday and again Tuesday.
The WPC’s blended model forecast for the 4-day period through Tuesday shows up to 2 inches of liquid near the summit, with amounts falling off quickly to our south into the central Sierra. Being that close to the edge of the storm track, we will have to watch the trends closely.
The Sunday night through Tuesday storms look colder with snow levels falling to around 7000 ft. So we could see some accumulating snow on the mountain if the storms track far enough south. We’ll continue to watch the trends all week.
The long-range models suggest that high pressure could build in briefly next Wednesday – Thursday. But then another trough could dig into the West Coast by the end of the week with storms returning by the 10th-11th.
Then they suggest that we could see a drier pattern return by mid-month. But we rarely trust forecasts out more than a week.