Snowfall Report:
9 inches of new snow fell at the base Thursday, and 13-15″ on the upper mountain. The 2-day storm total is 21″ on the upper mountain, around 3 inches shy of the 2 feet we were expecting from this storm up top. The season total is now at 255″, which is around 160% of the average for the date!
Friday:
A mix of some sun and clouds for Friday as one storm departs and the next storm moves into NW California. The winds will be lighter so the skiing weather should be pretty good. Gusts of only 15-20+ mph are expected through the day up top. Highs in the 30s at the base and 20s up top.
Weekend Storm:
Clouds and winds increase again Saturday with snow showers. Ridgetop winds increase up to 60-70+ mph from the southwest by midday, which could affect some upper mountain lifts. Then they could drop to around 50-60+ mph later in the day. Snow levels could hover near to just below the village through Saturday night
Later Saturday night into Sunday morning we expect some heavier snow and falling snow levels as the next system moves through. Then lighter snow showers are possible for Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Then possibly increasing again into early Monday morning as the next storm starts to move in.
Ridgetop winds could continue to be fairly gusty Sunday with gusts up to 70-80+ mph from the southwest through Sunday morning and possibly dropping to 40-50+ mph by the end of the day. That could affect some upper mountain lifts again. Highs in the 30s at the base and 20s up top both days.
Here is the updated snowfall forecast for the weekend storm through Sunday night. Up to a few inches of which could fall through Saturday evening, with the build falling Sunday, and a few more inches possible Sunday night.
- 7-13 inches at the base.
- 13-17 inches at the mid-mountain elevations.
- 14-19 inches up top
Monday – Tuesday Storm:
The next storm moves in by Monday morning and lasts into Tuesday evening. This storm starts warmer and is wetter. Snow levels look to peak out around 7200-7700 ft. Monday afternoon/evening with heavy rain at the base & heavy snow on the upper mountain. Ridgetop winds gusting from the southwest up to 80-90+ mph which will likely close several upper mountain lifts.
Snow levels are now forecast to fall faster Monday night than they were the last several days. They could drop below the base by midnight and below 5000 ft. through the end of the storm. That means we could see heavy snow from top to bottom into Tuesday morning. Then lighter snow Tuesday afternoon becomes more showery before tapering off Tuesday night.
The winds may drop off Tuesday morning with gusts of only 30-40+ mph up top, and dropping to 20-30+ mph for the afternoon. But there will likely be lift delays as mountain ops dig out and perform avalanche controls. Highs in the 30s at the base and 20s up top.
For the snowfall forecast, the upper mountain where we see all snow is easier to forecast. I have upped the forecast for the lower mountain and base with the snow levels forecast to fall faster, but I may need to lower them again if the trend is back towards a slower fall. Here is the updated 2-day snowfall forecast by Wednesday morning.
- 21-28 inches at the base. (after a change to snow Monday night)
- 28-52 inches at the mid-mountain elevations. (a big range as rain turns to snow higher up first)
- 52-62 inches up top.
Long-Range:
The active pattern is expected to continue through the long range. The storms don’t look as strong later next week. We may see a break Wednesday – Thursday. Then maybe weaker systems by the 13th-14th. The storms could become a little stronger and colder through the 3rd week of January. More details as we get closer to each storm.
The long-range models suggest we could possibly transition into a drier pattern for the last week of January, which may be a nice break if it happens after almost non-stop storms since the beginning of November.
BA
