We have one last mild day on Tuesday with mostly sunny skies. Highs into the 50s for the lower elevations near the base and 40s for the upper mountain.
Wednesday – Thursday Systems:
The winds are going to crank up from the southwest on Wednesday with ridgetop gusts up to 90-100+ mph by afternoon. So expect some upper mountain lift closures. The gusty winds will continue into Thursday with west winds gusting up to 60-70+ mph over the ridges. Highs in the 40s for Wednesday morning and then dropping into the 30s Wednesday afternoon and 30s for highs Thursday.
The latest model runs have slowed the front’s arrival with the initial band of precipitation to midday-early afternoon Wednesday, with the steadiest precipitation expected during the afternoon-evening hours. That may allow the colder air to work in with snow levels falling a bit faster as the precipitation associated with the front moves through. Snow levels may start up around 7000-7500 ft. Wednesday afternoon and then fall close to the base by evening.
After the band of steadier precipitation moves through we expect the precipitation to become lighter and more scattered Wednesday night through Thursday night. A second weak system moves through Thursday keeping the shower chances going.
Lighter amounts of 1-3 inches are possible during this period through Thursday night, on top of the 1-5 inches from bottom to top that we could see Wednesday afternoon-evening. That means we could see total snowfall amounts by early Friday morning of 2-4 inches near the base and 3-7 inches on the upper mountain.
Friday we expect mostly sunny skies and cold temperatures. Highs in the 30s and only 20s for the higher peaks. The winds come down and it should be a nice but chilly day. We may be able to make snow around the clock on the upper mountain with the cold temperatures.
Saturday and Sunday the storms continue to our north and they could bring us some clouds. We could see partly sunny skies with highs warming into the 40s as high pressure builds in over the region.
The high-pressure ridge is forecast to stay over the region through the 14th with a dry pattern continuing over northern CA and the Sierra.
The long-range forecast models continue to suggest that the ridge breaks down and shifts east by the 15th, and is replaced by a trough digging into the West Coast for 4-5 days.
Some forecast models are more impressive and open up the door to a couple of wetter systems possibly spinning up into the trough and moving into the West Coast. Other models are not as impressive and only open the door to a couple of weak systems at best.
We’ll continue to hold onto hope for some storms to bring us snow during this period. Especially since the models continue to suggest that high pressure builds back in near the West Coast again by the 20th.