Not much has changed for the short-range forecast this week. We have mostly sunny skies for Thursday and highs into the 30s. Ridgetop winds from the north gusting up to 40-50+ mph by afternoon.
Tuesday System:
A weak system with limited moisture moves through from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening with snow showers. Highs into the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s for the upper mountain. The winds turn west and increase with ridgetop gusts up to 80-90+ mph, which should close some upper mountain ski lifts.
We could see 1-3 inches of new snow on the mountain by early Wednesday morning.
Wednesday Storm:
A colder storm with more moisture moves through Wednesday and winds down Wednesday evening, with snow ending by midnight. Highs in the 20s. Ridgetop winds from the west gusting up to 90-100+ mph during the morning and then starting to fall through the afternoon.
The latest model runs have increased their precip forecasts by around a tenth of an inch. The cold will be our friend with this storm. Snow ratios on Wednesday increase to around 13-19:1 from the base up to 9000 ft., similar to the Saturday storm, bringing powdery snow to the mountain. The higher snow ratios will fluff up snowfall amounts.
We could see additional snowfall amounts of 7-15 inches from the base to the top by early Thursday morning. Total snowfall amounts over the 2-day period of around 8-13 inches at the base and 10-18 inches on the mountain.
Thursday – Friday:
The winds drop off Thursday morning with the sun coming out and highs only in the 20s. This should be a class bluebird powder day.
Friday we could see partly sunny skies with increasing clouds ahead of the next approaching storms from the northwest. Ridgetop winds from the west could increase to 50-60+ mph by afternoon, with high temperatures into the 30s for the lower elevations and 20s on the mountain.
Saturday Storm:
The forecast models have started to converge on a solution over the past 24 hours, with precipitation moving in by early Saturday morning and continuing to Saturday night before clearing out Sunday morning.
We could see ridgetop winds increasing to 60-70+ mph and highs in the 30s for the lower elevations, with 20s on the upper mountain. Snow levels could jump up to 7000-7500 ft. or even a bit higher on Saturday with the warmer air flowing into the storm. Then dropping to near the base Saturday night.
This would be wetter/thicker snow with lower snow ratios and not much help in fluffing snowfall totals. By Sunday morning we could see around 3-7 inches of snow at the base and 9-18 inches on the mountain from bottom to top. We still have 5 days to fine-tune the details of this storm…
Long-Range Forecast:
By Sunday into next week, the latest long-range models continue to show high-pressure building in over the West Coast, possibly through Friday the 19th. That would bring a drier pattern with slightly milder temperatures.
The one caveat may be a stronger storm around the 17th-18th that is able to push into the Pacific NW. Most of the latest model runs have it staying to our north, but the last few runs of the GFS model brush us on the southern edge.
We’ll continue to keep an eye on that possibility. Overall the pattern looks to be changing by the end of this week with any storms starting Saturday and beyond being warmer after seeing colder storms over the previous 10-day period.
BA
