Saturday:
We will see some clouds on Saturday as the low-pressure system developing off of SoCal starts to move northward. The next upstream system in the NE Pacific is also developing and moving towards the West Coast.
Saturday will be mild with highs in the 50s for the lower elevations. We can rule out a stray shower, but the precipitation is expected to hold off until Saturday night.
Saturday Night – Monday Night Storms:
The pair of storms from the south and northwest will combine to bring continuous precipitation to the northern Sierra by later Saturday night through Monday, with showers likely into Monday night before clearing out on Tuesday. Snow levels are expected to fall to around 6500-7000 ft. by Sunday morning, with snow on the upper mountain and rain for the lower elevations near the base.
These storms are not overly windy, so we are not expecting to see really strong winds like we saw with the last storm. There will be a southerly flow component to the Monday system, so we are expecting some shadowing of the precipitation again, with the heaviest precipitation staying west of the Sierra crest in the foothills.
The snow levels could stay just above the base through Sunday night, in the 6100 – 7000 ft. range with the first system from the south. The snow levels drop on Monday with the colder system moving in. Likely in the 5800 – 6300 ft. range, so right near the base with some wet snow possible, and then below 5000 ft. by the time the system wraps up Monday night.
That means we expect mostly rain or a mix near the base, with maybe a coating up to a few inches of snow, depending on elevation, by Monday night. Above 7000 ft. on the mountain, we expect mostly snow with these systems, with 8-13 inches possible near mid-mountain by Tuesday morning, and 12-17 inches up top.
Tuesday – Thursday:
We will clear out for Tuesday into Wednesday with partly-mostly sunny skies and colder air behind the storm. Highs near 40 degrees at lake level and 30s up on the mountains.
We have another storm that could move through on Thursday with some snow showers. Although some forecast models are dropping it down the coast and missing us completely. We’ll keep an eye on the trends, as this system should be all snow for the mountains as well if it reaches us.
Long-Range Forecast:
By next weekend (the 22nd – 23rd), the long-range models continue to show high pressure building in over the region. That should bring us a nice weekend with dry weather and seasonal temperatures for late November.
They show that ridge up near Alaska building as we go into the last week of November, with troughing over the northern Rockies. That pattern would block the storm track from the Pacific, with a dry pattern for the West Coast. But the trough over the West and the northerly flow around the east side of the ridge should push in colder air that is good enough for snowmaking at night.
We’ll continue to watch the trends to see if that pattern backs some by the end of the month, allowing a storm to move in…
BA
