Wednesday Evening System:
No real changes with the forecast for the first system moving into CA on Wednesday. We already have gusty south-southwest winds over the ridges this morning, with gusts up to 70+ mph. Watch for some upper mountain lifts to close for the day as the winds continue to increase a bit.
We could start with partly sunny skies and then clouds increase through the afternoon as the weakening band of precipitation approaches. Then it moves through during the evening hours. The scattered showers will clear out overnight.
Snow levels will be pretty high. They could start around 7500-8000 ft. as the band of precipitation moves through, and then they are forecast to jump overnight to 8000-8500 ft. That means rain showers for the lower mountain.
We could see a dusting to an inch of snow on the upper mountain. Maybe a peak above 9000 ft. a high end of 2 inches.
Thursday – Friday:
Thursday the winds drop off and we should see partly sunny skies on both Thursday and Friday. Highs into the 40s for the lower elevations and 30s for the higher elevations. Winds look to increase from the south through the day on Friday ahead of the next system, with ridgetop gusts up to 40-50+ mph.
Saturday System:
The Saturday system looks fairly impressive and wet as it starts to move into CA on Friday. You’ll see precipitation on radar approaching the Sierra into Friday night, but it may not reach the mountain until early Saturday morning.
The precipitation should continue to struggle to push over the mountains through the day on Saturday, but we should see some rain and snow showers that could linger into Saturday evening before clearing out by early Sunday morning.
Snow levels could start around 7000-7500 ft. early Saturday morning, and then slowly fall to around 5500-6000 ft. (to the base) by the end Saturday evening. That means a rain snow mix is expected below 7000 ft. This is another fairly warm system, but a bit colder than the Wednesday night system.
Based on the latest model run averages, we could see a coating up to 2 inches of snow at the base by Saturday night, and 1-4 inches on the mountain from bottom to top.
New Year’s Holiday – Wednesday:
The latest model runs seem to be catching onto the storm track dipping farther south as the mean jet stream opposition is forecast to be well to the south going into the first week of January. That would track the next system farther south on New Year’s Day system with less of a chance for scattered snow showers this far north.
There is a trend south with the system approaching next Wednesday as well, with some models now showing a complete miss. We’ll continue to watch the trends, but over the next week, I’m not expecting the currently forecast pattern to bring us anything more than weak systems.
We could see partly sunny skies for Sunday through at least Tuesday, with highs in the 30s.
Long-Range Forecast:
The long-range models continue to show a brief trough over the West Coast opening up the storm door around the 7th-8th, but the door could open and shut fast as the trough moves east and ridging tries to build back in near the West Coast by the 9th. So fast that the latest model runs don’t show anything more than the possibility of weak systems brushing us if any through at least the 11th.
The pattern is shifting in January, but from one drier pattern to another on the latest model runs. The pattern looks to at least be a bit colder.
We’ll continue to watch the trends. Hopefully, something will give in January. Colder air is nice, but we need big snowstorms.
BA