Dry through Tuesday:
No changes to the forecast we’ve been discussing for the last several days. We have dry and mild weather over the region through Tuesday. Mostly sunny skies during the day with a few clouds possible, especially by Tuesday. Highs into the 50s.
Wednesday – Saturday System:
A low-pressure system spins up into the base of a trough near the West Coast this week and is forecast to sit off the coast through Friday. By Wednesday afternoon some models have the eastern edge of the precipitation close enough to brush the northern Sierra with some rain showers. Other models keep the moisture just to our West through Friday morning.
With the orientation of the storm, we don’t expect strong winds, just some clouds, and slightly cooler temperatures. Highs dropping into the 40s Wednesday through Friday. We could see some light rain showers reach the Sierra later Wednesday through Friday with snow levels likely above 8000-9000 ft. through the period.
Friday Night Snow?:
Friday night the center of the low-pressure system is finally forecast to move east through CA. That could push in some steady precipitation Friday night along with some colder air, and then some scattered showers lingering over the Sierra into Saturday.
The latest model runs show light-moderate showers possible Friday night. Snow levels on the latest model runs dip near 7000 ft. Friday night. This would be the best shot as seeing a few inches of snow accumulate on the mountain this week.
We’ll continue to watch the trends all week to see if we will pick up any snown or just some light rain showers through Saturday.
By next Sunday, the long-range models continue to show high-pressure building over the West Coast into the beginning of the week of the 20th. That should bring a drier and milder pattern to the region for at least 2-3 days. Overall through the day before Thanksgiving, most of the snowfall is forecast to remain to our east in the Rockies.
The long-range models are hinting at a cold trough moving down from the north into most of the West for Thanksgiving. The temperature forecasts show below to well below average temperatures moving in from the north.
That may help with snowmaking conditions and maybe we see some snow showers with the frontal passage. But no big storms in the foreseeable future right now that could bring the early-season snow base we would like to see for skiing.