Sunday – Tuesday:
The sunny days with highs in the 40s continue. Temperatures at night are sub-optimal for good snowmaking, as high pressure continues to hang on over the West Coast.
Wednesday Cold Shot:
The pattern shifts slightly on Wednesday with the ridge still near the West Coast in the NE Pacific, but a cold trough is digging southwest just far enough to bring some colder air into the region.
That will drop high temperatures in the 30s down to the lower elevations, with 20s at night. The snowmaking conditions will improve, with the hours extending as well. There are still a few models that suggest a snow shower or two with the cold front on Wednesday, but nothing to write home about.
Thursday – Friday:
High pressure nudges back in over CA Thursday into Friday. That will continue the dry pattern, and temperatures will moderate again, with sub-optimal snowmaking conditions likely returning by Friday.
Next Weekend:
The ridge in the NE Pacific near the coast is forecast to weaken and shift, with a trough in the NE Pacific emerging by the 7th. But high pressure is still expected to remain to the south off the coast and over CA… That will likely return the storm track through the Pacific NW, but keep it to our north.
Being on the south side of the storm track will also keep the temperatures mild. Snowmaking could continue to be sub-optimal, and inversions are even possible at night.
Long-Range Outlook:
Beyond a week, the long-range models suggest that high pressure could remain over the region, keeping us dry through at least the 8th/9th.
Beyond 10 days, the longer-range models start to diverge around the 9th and beyond. Most of the forecast models show that we could continue to be stuck in a similar pattern through the 2nd week of December, with the storm track mainly to our north, and only chances for weaker systems at best.
There are a couple of models out there that show a deeper trough down the West Coast starting around the 9th, with an even deeper trough by mid-month. That would open the storm door for much of the period between the 9th – 15th of December.
Maybe they are onto something, but I want to see a lot more models jump on board and agree before I believe it. For now, we are stuck in a dry pattern for another week, with the only interesting weather being the colder air on Wednesday. Hopefully things change beyond next weekend!
BA
