Increasing clouds Sunday with highs into the 40s.
Monday – Tuesday Storm:
A cut-off low is spinning off the coast this weekend. That system is going to open up and move inland to our north Monday into Tuesday. That is going to push precipitation into the northern Sierra by early Monday morning. Rain and high-elevation snow are expected over the 2-day period.
There is still a wide range among the models with precipitation forecasts with a range of 0.65 – 2.5 inches of liquid over the mountain, with the average down to around 1.7 inches today which I’ll use for the snowfall forecast. Gusty south-southwest winds with gusts up to 60-70+ mph over the exposed ridges Monday and then coming down some into Tuesday.
Snow levels are going to be high as the precipitation starts to move in Monday morning, up around 9000-9500 ft. Then dropping to around 8000-8500 ft. during the day on Monday and 7500-8000 ft. Monday night, and bottoming out around 6800-7300 ft. by Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night.
That mainly all rain for the base up to 7000 ft. Between 7000-8000 ft. we expect mostly rain Monday and then some wet snow Tuesday, with 1-7 inches of snow possible by Wednesday morning. The higher amounts closer to 8000 ft. Above 8k’ we could see 7-15 inches of base-building snow, with the highest amounts up on the peaks.
There is pretty good agreement that the second cut-off low will drop down the coast Tuesday through Thursday, with maybe a few scattered showers reaching us Wednesday. We should dry out through Thursday as the low drops to our south.
Snow levels will rise back up to 7500-8000 ft. on Wednesday with any showers that reach us. Highs near 40 degrees for the lower elevations near the base and 30s for the upper mountain on both days. We should see the clouds start to clear on Thursday with some sun possible.
We are expecting a drier pattern Thursday through possibly Christmas Day now, as the latest forecast model runs hold off on the next storm until the 26th. There is a weak system that could brush us with some snow showers on Friday if it tracks far enough south.
That system will bring in some colder air for next weekend with highs in the 30s. Outside of the system that may or may not bring snow showers Friday, we expect partly-mostly sunny each day Friday through next Sunday.
The latest model runs continue to suggest that we could see a stronger storm move in around the 26th into the 27th, with more storms possible through the end of the month. However, the long-range models don’t agree on whether they will be wet or weaker storms. We’ll continue to watch the trends…